College Football Odds: Maryland at Virginia
Written by Steve Janus - Google +
This Saturday the Maryland Terrapins will look to keep their ACC Atlantic title hopes alive when they go on the road to take on the Virginia Cavaliers. The Terrapins come in off a 26-20 loss at Miami, while the Cavaliers lost a shootout at Duke 55-48. The Terrapins are just 4-14 in their last 18 games against the Cavaliers, and have lost the last three, including a 20-9 loss at home last season. The oddsmakers don’t seem to think there is a lot that separates these two teams this week, as the current odds have the Terrapins favored by 1-point over the Cavaliers at home.
Maryland (6-3, 3-2 ACC): The Terrapins control their own destiny in the ACC Atlantic with just three games remaining. If the Terrapins can beat Virginia on the road this week, and then take care of business at home against Florida State and North Carolina State, they will be playing in the ACC Championship game.
The Terrapins got off to a great start last week, scoring 17 points in the second quarter to take a 17-16 halftime lead, but the offense managed just three points in the final two periods, and Maryland went home with a disappointing loss.
The Terrapins have struggled to move the ball all season, averaging just 316 yards a game, and that was the case last weekend against Miami. Maryland managed just 254 yards of total offense, and was dismal 3 for 12 on third down conversions. Quarterback Danny O’Brien completed just 9 of 28 for 134 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Running backs Davin Meggett and Da’Rel Scott combined for 100 yards on just 18 carries. Meggett led the way with 70 yards on 9 carries, and you have to wonder why he didn’t get more touches.
Defensively the Terrapins got a big play from senior middle linebacker Alex Wujciak, who intercepted a pass and ran it back 60 yards to give Maryland an early 14-6 lead. Other than that the Terrapins struggled, allowing 504 yards of total offense and were dominated in time of possession 36:42 to 23:18.
Virginia (4-5, 1-4 ACC): After an impressive win over Miami the previous week, the Cavaliers allowed a Duke team that had yet to win a conference game beat them with a big time offensive performance. Virginia did show some heart in the loss. Trailing 40-28 with just over 12 minutes to play in the fourth, the Cavaliers fought back to take a 48-47 lead with just over 2 minutes to play, but Duke scored with just 40 seconds remaining to secure the win.
Offensively the Cavaliers had 643 yards of total offense, but really hurt themselves with 11 penalties for 103 yards and three turnovers. Quarterback Marc Verica had a monster day throwing the ball, completing 24 of 46 for four touchdowns and a school-record 417 yards, but also had three costly interceptions. Sophomore Desmond Scott and Brandon Connette combined for 185 yards on 29 carries, as the Cavaliers totaled 226 yards on the ground.
Defensively the Cavaliers had no answer for the Blue Devils offense, forcing Duke to punt just once the entire game, and allowed the Blue Devils to gain 489 yards of offense. The Cavaliers will have to play better defensively this week, or they likely stand no chance against the Terrapins.
Looking at the Odds: I think your money has to be on the Terrapins to cover in this one. Virginia comes in ranked 109th in the country, allowing 210 rushing yards a game, and that plays right into the strength of the Terrapins. Maryland is 17-5 ATS versus poor rushing defenses – allowing >=4.75 rushing yards/carry since 1992. My final score prediction is Maryland 27, Virginia 23.
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