NBA Playoffs: Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs Game 5 Predictions
Written April 28, 2009 by Steve Janus
The Dallas Mavs look to close out their playoff series against the San Antonio Spurs after opening up a surprising 3-1 lead in the first round. The Spurs are traditionally one of the toughest teams to beat in the playoffs, they haven’t lost a first round series since 2000, but maybe San Antonio’s age is starting to show, or at least a loss in the consistency that has been their trademark in years past. At the very least, this performance has shown how important Manu Ginobili has been for this team, as they are obviously missing his production on the court. The Mavs barely edged their way into the playoffs this year, but if they can dispatch of the Spurs in just 5 games, you can bet that there will be some heads turning around the Western Conference. The NBA odds for tonight’s Game 5 show San Antonio as 5 point favorites over the Mavs and the total for the game set at 188 points.
The Spurs have received one great individual playoff series from Tony Parker, who is averaging 29.3 points per game and is shooting over 55% from the field. Tim Duncan, to no one’s surprise, has also been solid for San Antonio, shooting right around 50% from the field for 17.3 points per game in the playoffs so far. The rest of the team, however, has not been so productive. Roger Mason’s point total has dropped in each game of the series, including his 0 point performance in Game 4. Drew Gooden is just 11 of 33 from the floor in the series, and Michael Finley has managed to hit just 4 of his 15 field goals since a 7 for 10 performance in Game 1 of the series. Probably the biggest factor in the Spurs’ offensive struggles is the absence of Manu Ginobili, who is out for the playoffs with a stress fracture in his ankle. Ginobili was the most dynamic scorer on the floor for the the Spurs, not to mention an excellent defender.
Dallas has been uncharacteristically good on defense in the first round, holding the Spurs to 35.4% shooting over the past two games. What has been different about this Mavs team in comparison to their playoff teams in the past is that they are getting production out of their bench, most notably Ryan Hollis, Brandon Bass, and James Singleton. I think it’s safe to say that Dallas would like to finish this series out tonight. Even with another game scheduled in Dallas should their need to be one, the Mavs don’t want to push their luck like they did in 2006 against the Spurs in the 2nd round of the playoffs. In that series the Mavs were also up 3-1, but lost in San Antonio, then lost in Dallas, and needed to come back and win in San Antonio in overtime in Game 7. Don’t get me wrong, I’m sure they’d still like the outcome to be the same (not to mention the Mavs made the Finals that year), but they’d surely prefer to close the game out tonight. With the Spurs not looking much like the Spurs lately, I’m recommending the Mavs to finish win the first round of the playoffs on the road tonight, but I’ll certainly take the 5 points the books are giving, just to be on the safe side.
Predicted Score: Dallas Mavs 99, San Antonio Spurs 95
Play on: Dallas Mavs +5 at Sportsbook.com
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