Miami at South Florida Spread
Written by Jack Jones - Google +
The South Florida Bulls host the Miami Hurricanes in an in-state rivalry clash Saturday afternoon. Surprisingly, the road team has won both meetings the past two seasons. South Florida won at Miami 23-20 last year in overtime as a 13-point underdog. After Matt Bosher kicked a 28-yard field goal for the Hurricanes in the extra session, the Bulls answered with a game-winning 1-yard touchdown run from Demetris Murray.
Odds makers have set the line for Miami at South Florida as a Pick ‘Em with a total set of 52.5 points.
Miami
The Hurricanes still need a win to become bowl eligible. Miami (5-5, 3-4 ACC) has had a season filled with near-misses. All five of their losses have come by eight points or less, including a 23-19 road loss to the Florida State Seminoles last Saturday. After traveling to South Florida Saturday, the Hurricanes will close out their season with a home game against Boston College.
Miami actually outplayed Florida State, outgaining them 383-259. But once again turnovers killed them as they gave the ball away three times, while not forcing one takeaway. If the turnovers weren’t bad enough, they also gave up an 83-yard punt return for a touchdown to the Seminoles on special teams. Jacory Harris went 20 of 31 passing for 225 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Lamar Miller rushed for 92 yards to lead all backs.
This team ranks 63rd in the country in total offense (375.0 yards/game) and 49th in total defense (372.1 yards/game). Harris has bounced back nicely this season, completing 64.2 percent of his passes for 1,982 yards and 19 touchdowns to five interceptions. Miller is also having a great year, rushing for a team-high 1,108 yards and eight scores while averaging 5.7/carry. Tommy Streeter is a big play waiting to happen at receiver. He has caught 36 balls for 734 yards (20.4/reception) with eight touchdowns.
South Florida
The Bulls started the season with four straight wins, including a 23-20 victory at then-No. 16 Notre Dame in their opener. However, South Florida (5-4, 1-4 Big East) went on to drop their next four games, including three losses by six points or less. They finally got back on track last Friday with an impressive 37-17 victory at Syracuse. The Bulls will close out their season with three straight home games. After they play Miami, they will host both Louisville and West Virginia.
South Florida outgained Syracuse 490-405 last week, rushing for 236 yards, and throwing for 254 more in a balanced effort offensively. B.J. Daniels had a monster game, throwing for 254 yards, while also rushing for a team-high 117 yards and a score. Demitris Murray chipped in 86 yards and two touchdowns as the Bulls scored all four of their touchdowns on the ground. Kicker Maikon Bonani made field goals of 46, 35 and 29 yards.
This team ranks very well statistically this season, but they just don’t have the record to show for it. The Bulls are 17th in the land in total offense (469.2 yards/game) and 37th in total defense (352.1 yards/game). Daniels is completing 60.4 percent of his passes for 2,281 yards with 12 touchdowns and two interceptions. He is also second on the team in rushing (549 yards, five TD). Darrell Scott leads all backs with 612 yards and five scores, and Murray has chipped in 433 yards and a team-high seven touchdowns. Sterling Griffin is Daniels’ top target with 40 receptions for 493 yards and two scores.
Betting Trends
The Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. ACC opponents, but just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
The Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall, but only 17-35 ATS in their last 52 games following an ATS win.
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