Miami at Virginia Tech Odds

Written by Jack Jones

The 21st-ranked Virginia Tech Hokies host the Miami Hurricanes Saturday in a crucial ACC showdown. Both squads are looking to bounce back from losses and stay alive for a conference title. The Hokies have owned this series recently, winning four of the last five meetings. They beat Miami 31-17 on the road last season, and 31-7 in ‘09 in their last meeting in Blacksburg. Kickoff is set for 3:30 EST Saturday and this contest will be nationally televised on ABC.

According to the most recent college football lines, Virginia Tech is a 7.5-point home favorite with a total set of 44.5 points.

Virginia Tech

The Hokies came into the 2011 season with big expectations. Many considered this team not only as a favorite to win the ACC, but also a contender to play for a national title. They got off to a fast start by going 4-0 through their first four contests, though they did not play much competition along the way. Virginia Tech even suffered a scare at East Carolina in Week 2, but prevailed 17-10. They were a 7-point favorite against Clemson last week, but were completely dominated and lost 23-3 at home. The Hokies were held to just 258 total yards, and they committed two turnovers in the loss.

Now, Virginia Tech (4-1, 0-1 ACC) has dropped 10 spots in the Top 25 polls. If they still want to win the conference, they really need a victory over Miami this week. Sophomore quarterback Logan Thomas must take his game to the next level if that’s going to happen. Thomas is completing just 56.8 percent of his passes for 886 yards and four touchdowns to five interceptions. David Wilson has carried the load offensively, rushing for 639 yards (6.0/carry) and five touchdowns. Danny Coale leads all receivers with 23 grabs for 326 yards and a score.

While the offense has struggled for the most part this season, the defense has gotten back to its usual aggressive, dominant ways under coordinator Bud Foster. Virginia Tech ranks 4th in the country in total defense (249.6 yards/game) and 8th in scoring defense (12.6 points/game). Their stop unit continues to be put in bad situations considering the Hokies are just 62nd in total offense (395.8 yards/game). They are also 66th in scoring offense (28.4 points/game) despite playing a pretty soft schedule.

Miami

The Hurricanes have not had the fortune of playing a weak schedule to this point. They opened their season with three very tough opponents, and it did not go so well. Miami lost 32-24 at Maryland in their opener, but rebounded nicely with a 24-6 home victory over then-No. 17 Ohio State. The ‘Canes would go on to lose to Kansas State 24-28, but that loss isn’t looking so bad considering the Wildcats remain unbeaten on the season. They beat Bethune-Cookman 45-14 last week for a nice little tune-up heading into this showdown with the Hokies.

Miami (2-2, 0-1 ACC) just recently got some suspended players back, making them a much more dangerous team going forward. Quarterback Jacory Harris returned for the Ohio State game, and he’s played pretty well thus far. Harris is completing 69.0 percent of his passes for 570 yards and six touchdowns to three interceptions. Lamar Miller has been their most reliable offensive weapon, rushing for 511 yards (6.7/carry) and four touchdowns. Receiver Travis Benjamin returned with Harris for the Ohio State game, and he has a team-high 15 receptions for 170 yards and a touchdown.

Looking at team statistics alone, it’s easy to see why the Hurricanes are off to just a .500 start this year. Miami ranks 80th in the land in total offense (369.1 yards/game) and 67th in total defense (382.1 yards/game). They have buckled down in the red zone, which is a big reason why their defense ranks 28th in scoring (20.0 points/game). Their offense has also been pretty efficient inside the 20 as Miami sits 62nd in scoring offense (29.3 points/game). Their biggest weakness is a defense that is giving up 202.2 yards/game on the ground, which ranks 99th in the nation.

Betting Trends

Virginia Tech is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings with Miami, including 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home meetings. The Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in this series.

Miami is a profitable 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 points, but that’s about the only trend they have working in their favor. The Hurricanes are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games following a SU win of more than 20 points, and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

The Hokies are an outstanding 40-16 ATS in their last 56 conference games, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0 points. They clearly came into the season overrated though, as Virginia Tech is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

Crush the books in Week 6 by following the advice of expert handicapper Jack Jones.

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