2011 Michigan Football Predictions
Written by Patrick Webb
Michigan is heading towards the future by getting in touch with their past. “Michigan Man” Brady Hoke, a defensive assistant at Michigan from 1995-2002 has taken the reins from Rich Rodriguez and will install more traditional offensive and defensive sets. He has already done a nice job of turning around Ball State and San Diego State in his previous head coaching gigs, but this will be his most daunting task to date. He has done a good job on the recruiting trail for the ’12 class and also seems to have done well off the field this season. However, he is inheriting a Michigan team that is built for a different kind of offense and that has really struggled on the defensive side of the ball over the past few seasons.
Hoke brings experienced coordinators Al Borges (Offense) and Greg Mattison (Florida/ Baltimore Ravens) and used his spring to install new schemes and tougher discipline throughout the program. The Wolverines return nearly everyone from last season’s bowl team, losing only back up QB Tate Forcier, OLs Stephen Schilling and Perry Dorrestiein, and TE Martell Webb. Defensively they lose DTs Greg Banks and Adam Patterson, as well as LBs Mouton and James Rodgers, along with transfers Ray Vinopal and Cullen Christian. The key players from their defense return and it’s hard to imagine them performing much worse than last season.
Borges has his work cut out for him in transitioning an effective offensive unit to a scheme that may not fit the personnel. He’s putting Denard Robinson under center and establishing a new blocking scheme. It’s worth noting, however, that Michigan’s offense struggled against more traditional defensive units from Iowa, Michigan State and Ohio State last season. Robinson will likely still be used as a running threat and he greatly improved as a passer last season, but will have to take another step as a passer for this scheme to be effective. Robinson completed 62.5% of his passes last season, but had a troubling 18/11 TD/INT ratio and struggled at times passing in the Red Zone.
Michigan has a lot of options at tailback, but look for Stephen Hopkins to set himself apart in the crowded backfield. Tailback will be a larger focus in this year’s offense in order to take pressure off of Robinson. Hopkins has great size and speed and is joined by Michael Shaw, Michael Cox, and Vincent Smith from last season.
Michigan also has a wealth of talent at receiver in Darryl Stonum, Roy Roundtree (72 rec., 7 TDs), Junior Hemingway and Martavious Odoms, along with several talented youngsters waiting in the wings. TE will be a bigger focus for this offense and Kevin Koger is poised to take advantage of a bigger role.
Michigan’s offensive line should be a strength, even after the loss of the excellent four-year starter Schilling. Center David Molk headlines the unit, and when he is healthy he is one of the most effective linemen in the Big Ten. Taylor Lewan (LT) and Patrick Omameh also return, along with tackles Mark Huyge and Michael Scholfield, who both saw action in all 13 games last season. G Ricky Barnum is slated to fill the shoes of Schilling. This is a slightly undersized unit in today’s line standards, but it should be able to jell quickly with veterans Molk, Lewan and Omameh all viewed as potential All-Big Ten players. If Scholfield or Huyge take hold of the RT job early and Barnum plays steady this will be one of the most athletic units in the Big Ten.
Last season this team rushed for 239 yards per game and allowed only 11 sacks, but given the change in offense and the loss of Schilling I expect that those numbers will be out of reach. Robinson’s ability to run should help this unit when pass protecting, but it will be hard for them to match last year’s production on the ground since Robinson is expected run the ball less.
Michigan’s defense gave up 35.2 points and 451 yards per game in 2010. They were shredded by Notre Dame, UMASS (FCS), Indiana, Michigan State, Illinois (315 rush yards and 65 points!), Wisconsin, Ohio State and Mississippi State. Michigan won the turnover battle in only the first two games and had only 18 sacks for the season, with 6 combined in games versus Purdue and Bowling Green. Greg Mattison has his hands full to say the least. The good news is that he has some talent to work with in the front seven as they switch to a 4-3 defense. Mike Martin, and Ryan Van Bergen are solid run-stuffers and Craig Roh can finally line up with his hand on the ground and try to get after the QB full time. Will Campbell has excellent size, has seen time in 24 games in his career and will certainly receive better coaching this season.
Michigan returns three key contributors at linebacker from last season in Kenny Demens, Cam Gordon and J.B. Fitzgerald. Red-shirt freshman Jake Ryan had a strong spring and is pushing for time as well. Demens seemed to make a difference last season when he was inserted for Ezeh at LB. The switch to a 4-3 will likely benefit this group the most, as the d-line has the talent and size to tie up offensive lines. The Wolverines’ linebackers have the athleticism to help in coverage as well as rushing the passer. Michigan must increase pressure on the quarterback as they gave up 262 passing yards per game and allowed over 63% of opponent passes to be completed. Mattison’s time with Baltimore could lead to Michigan using some exotic blitzes, which could confuse college QBs and help the defense get off the field after 3rd down more often.
The Wolverines’ secondary was extremely young last season, a trait that was compounded by injuries at nearly every spot in the five man backfield. J.T. Floyd has solid skills and size, while Courtney Avery provides depth and experience at corner as well. Safety Jordan Kovacs returns and has been steady in his two seasons. Carvin Johnson’s transition from LB to S seemed successful this spring, and Thomas Gordon returns as well. This unit should be much better given the change in scheme as long as they can stay healthy. Michigan has plenty of youth in the secondary, including four freshmen who could impact the depth chart as well.
Michigan’s placekicking was not very good last season. They need either Seth Broekhuizen or Brendan Gibbons to seize the job and make more than four field goals. Punter Will Hagerup returns after a strong freshman campaign and has the potential to up both his average and net yards per punt (43.6/ 36.1 net). The Wolverines have plenty of options at returner and improved special teams play could go a long way towards helping transitions for both the offense and defense.
Schedule Analysis: Michigan has started off strong in each of the last two seasons and faded down the stretch. This season they have three solid opponents in the non-conference portion of their schedule, including a home date with Notre Dame. Hoke’s former team San Diego State closes out the non-conference slate, which features four-straight home games for the Wolverines.
Michigan opens Big Ten season against Minnesota at home and then travels to Northwestern and Michigan State before a bye. If the Wolverines are relatively healthy at this point, they could make some noise in the Legends division as they have Purdue at home, Iowa and Illinois on the road, then close the season with Nebraska and Ohio State in the Big House. I do think Michigan will beat a team they aren’t expected to this season, which could lead to a three-win campaign in the Big Ten as well as a bowl birth.
Final Record Prediction: 6-6 Overall (3-5 Big Ten – 5th in Leaders Division)
Other Resources:
- Locksmith Sports – 5th in Legends
- Bettors World - sees the Wolverine season coming down to the last four games.
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