Michigan at Illinois Line

Written by Steve Janus

This Saturday the No. 24 Michigan Wolverines will host the Illinois Fighting Illini in a game between two Big Ten Teams that have really struggled over the last three weeks. Both of these teams opened up the season 6-0, but have combined for just one win since that point. The Wolverines sandwiched an impressive win over Purdue between two bad losses at Michigan State and Iowa. The Illini return from their bye week off three straight by a combined 17 points. Last year Michigan edged Illinois 67-65 (3OT) in one of the most entertaining games in Big Ten History.

Taking a look at the week 11 college football spreads, oddsmakers opened up the line at Michigan -3, but has since dropped to a Pick’em. The total for this game is currently listed at 49 points.

Michigan:

The Wolverines hopes of winning the Big Ten Legends division took a huge hit with their loss at Iowa. Michigan is 3-2 in conference play, but trail 4-1 Michigan State who they already lost to earlier this season. The Wolverines will not only need some help, but they will likely have to win out against Illinois, Nebraska, and Ohio State.

The Wolverines offense has really struggled in their last two road games. They scored just 14 points in a 28-14 loss at Michigan State and were held to just 16 last week at Iowa. While the defense is greatly improved from a season ago, this team isn’t going to win many games with that kind of play offensively.

Michigan had their chances in their latest loss to the Hawkeyes. The Wolverines drove inside the Iowa 20-yard line twice without scoring, including the final drive of the game. Denard Robinson threw for 194 yards and a touchdown, but managed just 55 yards rushing. Robinson also threw an interception deep in Iowa territory early in the third quarter.

In Michigan’s six wins with Robinson at starting quarterback he has rushed for 737 yards and 9 touchdowns. In the Wolverines two losses he has managed just 97 yards and a single touchdown. It’s no secret that this team needs him to be effective running the ball if they are going to beat the better teams in this conference.

One thing to watch for is whether or not Robinson is limited by a shoulder injury he suffered against Iowa. While he is expected to play, you have to wonder if he will be willing to take the beating that comes with running the ball 15+ times a game. Last year Robinson torched the Illinois defense for 305 yards and three touchdowns threw the air while rushing for just 62 yards.

Illinois:

The Illini have played well enough defensively to be 9-0 coming into this game, but have managed to score just 38 points in their last three games. They lost 7-17 at home against Ohio State, 14-21 at Purdue, and 7-10 at Penn State. Whether or not the offense can come alive and get this team back on track is hard to tell.

In their last game against Penn State, Illinois took a 7-0 lead into the fourth quarter, but were outscored 10-0 in the final period. The Illini had a chance to send the game into overtime, but missed a field goal as time expired.

Illinois rushed for an impressive 192 yards in the loss, but struggled to sustain drives and turn them into points. Jason Ford carried it 24 times for a team-high 100 yards while sophomore quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase added another 89 yards. The ground attack was negated by the fact that Illini couldn’t throw the football, as they finished with just 94 yards through the air.

Last year Scheelhaase threw for 211 yards and three touchdowns and ran for another 101 yards and a score, but this is not that same Michigan defense. The Wolverines come in allowing just 15.7 points and 329 yards under new head coach Brady Hoke, and with the way the Illini have struggled its hard to imagine a similar performance this time around.

Betting Trends:

Michigan is 5-23 ATS in their last 28 conference games.

Illinois is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a S.U. loss.

Be sure to stop back and check out who Steve Janus has picked to win this week in college football. The expert handicapper is 15-5 over his last 20 college selections.

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