Michigan at Michigan State Line

Written by Steve Janus

One of the most anticipated college matchups this Saturday is the No. 11 Michigan Wolverines going on the road to face to No. 23 Michigan State Spartans. The Wolverines improved to 6-0 overall and 2-0 inside the Big Ten with a 42-24 win over Northwestern this past Saturday. The Spartans come in off a bye week, but they downed Ohio State 10-7 to move to 4-1 overall and 1-0 in the conference. Michigan State went on the road and beat Michigan 34-17 last year, giving them three straight wins in the series.

Taking a look at the week 7 college football spreads, oddsmakers currently have the Spartans favored by 2-points over the Wolverines with the total sitting at 48.5 points.

Michigan Wolverines:

The Wolverines looked liked they were headed for their first loss of the season last week, as they trailed 14-24 at half to a talented Northwestern team. Starting quarterback Denard Robinson had two first half touchdown passes, but his three interceptions allowed the Wildcats to take control. Robinson responded with a flawless second half and ended up finishing the game with 337 passing yards on 17 of 26 passing. The junior also led the team with 117 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the ground.

Robinson connected with wide out Junior Hemingway five times for 124 yards, while throwing his two touchdown tosses to Jeremy Gallon and Steve Watson. Hemmingway and Gallon have been the two most consistent receiving threats for the Wolverines. Hemmingway leads the team with 391 receiving years on just 15 catches, while Gallon has caught a team-high 17 passes for 262 yards.

While the Wolverines will use running back Fitzgerald Toussaint, the Michigan ground attack is fueled by Robinson and his ability to turn nothing into a huge gain. Robinson’s 720 rushing yards are 6th best in the country.

Robinson and company will go up against a Michigan State defense that really played them well a year ago. The Spartans held Robinson to just 86 yards on the ground, while forcing him to throw three interceptions. When Robinson can’t run the ball the Wolverines offense usually struggles. Michigan state has the No. 1 ranked defense in the country. They are 3rd against the run (64 ypg) and 2nd against the pass (109.4 ypg).

Michigan State Spartans:

The only blemish this season for the Spartans is a 31-13 loss at Notre Dame. The Spartans stingy defense held Notre Dame to just 275 yards of total offense, but a kickoff return for a touchdown and two turnovers aided the Irish to what ended up being an easy win. Outside of that game, Michigan State hasn’t allowed a single opponent to score more than 7 points. In their last game they held Ohio State to just 178 yards and didn’t allow a single point until the Buckeyes scored a garbage touchdown with 10 seconds left in the game.

While the Spartans have been able to ride their defense in their first five games, their are some concerns with this team’s ability to score offensively. A big reason for that is the struggles of Kirk Cousins, who has just three touchdowns to four interceptions in his last three games. Cousins has completed nearly 68% of his passes for 1,197 yards on the year, but has to take better care of the football, especially with how well the defense is playing.

Michigan State comes in averaging just 128.8 rushing yards on the season, and have really struggled to move the ball on the ground in big games this season. They had just 29 yards on 23 attempts against Notre Dame and only 71 on 31 attempts against Ohio State.

Last year the Spartans piled on 536 yards of total offense against the Wolverines, but this is a much better Wolverine defense than we have seen in recent years. Michigan is holding opponents to 134 ypg on the ground and 202.5 through the air. While those numbers appear to be solid, I think they are a little misleading. Michigan allowed 513 total yards in a 35-31 win over Notre Dame and 438 to Northwestern last week.

Betting Trends:

Michigan is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0.

Michigan State is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 0.5-3.0.

Be sure to stop back and check out what Steve Janus has to offer in week 7 of college football. Steve is 18-4 over his last 32 NCAAF plays, which has him ranked No. 8 on the college boards in 2011!

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