2011 Michigan State Football Predictions

Written by Patrick Webb

Key player losses, a hard look at last season’s performance and an examination of this year’s schedule show a potentially difficult season for Michigan State in 2011. The Spartans do return some talent, including QB Kirk Cousins and three quality tailbacks, led by Edwin Baker, plus depth at both the receiver and tight end positions. Unfortunately the defense loses key play makers Greg Jones and Eric Gordon, along with trouble-but-talented corner Chris L. Rucker.

Mark D’Antonio has steadily increased the Spartans’ win total over his four seasons as head coach, including four-straight bowl appearances and an 11 win season last year. Michigan State struggled in their two losses a year ago, suffering a 31-point loss at Iowa and a 42-point loss to Alabama. MSU skated by some of the lesser teams in the Big Ten last season, including comeback wins versus Northwestern and Purdue, and an overtime win versus Notre Dame. Each of those wins featured a key special teams play that shifted the momentum in favor of the Spartans.

Michigan State loses five key players on offense and five key players on defense, as well as excellent punter Aaron Bates. The Spartans will have to rebuild the offensive line, while also replacing offensive coordinator Don Treadwell (now head coach at Miami OH), who subbed for D’Antonio following his heart attack after the Notre Dame game.

Michigan State has plenty of talent and depth at each of the skill positions, including Kirk Cousins at QB, who may have an NFL future and is a steady and smart field general. I look for him to increase his efficiency in his third year as a starter and improve on his junior campaign of 66.9%, 2,825 yards, and a solid 20/10 TD/INT ratio. MSU is high on sophomore Andrew Maxwell as Cousin’s backup, and should have enough of a running attack to feel comfortable with Maxwell managing games if the starter were to go down.

Baker is coming off a 1,201 yard season, averaging 5.8 yards per carry with 13 TDs. Larry Caper and Le’Veon Bell are big, physical backs who can step in and carry the load and hopefully help out in the passing game as well. Bell emerged from relative obscurity last season, rushing for 605 yards and scoring 8 TDs. Caper may be the most physically gifted of the trio, but has been injury prone.

The Spartans are extremely deep at receiver and tight end, despite losing solid players WR Mark Dell (51 receptions, 788 yards, 6 TDs) and TE Charlie Gantt (24 rec., 301 yds, 3 TDs). B.J. Cunningham led the team in TD receptions last season with nine on 50 catches, and big play threat Keshawn Martin can impact the game as a receiver, runner or returner. Former QB Keith Nichol adjusted very well to his position switch, ran solid routes and was very good as a blocker as well. Bennie Fowler headlines a core group of young receivers that are battling for playing time in the rotation. MSU also returns three TEs, including the steady Garrett Celek, the athletic Dion Sims, and Brian Linthicum. All will likely see some time, but Linthicum is currently off the depth chart following a legal issue.

New offensive coordinator Dan Roshour has been promoted from line coach and will need to help retool this line. The Spartans lose center John Stipek, and tackles J’Michael Deane and DJ Young. Michigan State may deep at this positional group, but breaking in three new starters could be a strain on this offense. Joel Foreman is a two-year starter and Chris McDonalsd should improve after starting all of last season. Newcomers Ethan Ruland, Skyler Schofner, and Fou Fonoti have very little experience. Jared McGaha is the most experienced lineman not listed on the two-deep and could push for time at either tackle position. This unit was a strength for the Spartans last year, helping MSU backs average 4.5 yards per carry, but the unit surrendered 24 sacks in pass protection. This piece of the offense needs to jell quickly to give the skill players enough protection to excel this season.

The defense returns six starters as well as defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi. MSU slightly underperformed defensively last season, giving up 22.3 points per game and will be without as much talent this year. This unit was sort of Jekyll and Hyde last season, giving up 24 points+ in four of their eight Big Ten games, including 31 to offensively-challenged Purdue.

This year’s defense will be built around a solid and deep defensive line that lost only Colin Neely at defensive end. Talented youngsters William Gholston and Denzel Drone are vying for the open DE spot. MSU also returns DE Ty Hoover, plus defensive tackles Jerel Worthy (potential to be a high NFL draft pick), Kevin Pickelman, and Jonathan Strayhorn. Blake Treadwell played on the offensive line during the spring, but could return to the defense to add size and depth to this unit.

Michigan State is replacing possibly the best linebacker in their history in Greg Jones (106 tackles, 9 TFL, 2 INTs, 6 QB hurries), who was solid in every phase of the game. They are also replacing Eric Gordon, who was a quality cover linebacker and had the speed to cover sideline to sideline in the running game. Chris Norman is expected to replace some of the production of those two players after showing a lot of potential last season. Max Bullough is penciled in as Jones’s replacement at the middle linebacker spot and has good athleticism for his size. Denicos Allen has the inside track at the outside linebacker spot that is open, but he is still learning the position. MSU doesn’t possess a lot of experienced depth in this unit as Jones and Gordon rarely left the field.

The Secondary could be a strength for the Spartans as they were hit with injuries and suspensions in this area last season. They have developed some depth at the corner spot, where Johnny Adams is a returning starter and Darqueze Dennard and Mitchell White saw action extensively last season. Free safety Trenton Robinson is back to lead this unit and will be joined by Isaiah Lewis, who may be an upgrade in athleticism from Marcus Hyde last year. MSU has recruited fairly well in the secondary over the last couple of seasons and some young players could emerge in fall camp to push for time.

Michigan State returns place kicker Dan Conroy, who missed only one of his fifteen attempts last season and should be solid again this year. Mike Sadler is expected to take over for Bates at the punter spot, and he has big shoes to fill as Bates was a key player in each of Michigan State’s surprise fakes last season. The Spartans were solid on both return units and will have the explosive Keshawn Martin leading the way on both.

Schedule Analysis: The Spartans’ only test in the non-conference portion of their schedule is a road game at Notre Dame. The Irish expect to be better than last season and it took a fake field goal in overtime for the Spartans to get past them a year ago. Michigan State opens the Big Ten by going to Ohio State. That will be Ohio State’s 5th game of the season as well, and they should have a QB and line established at that point (the Spartans have lost 7 in a row to the Buckeyes). After a bye, the Spartans get Michigan and Wisconsin back-to-back at home followed by a road trip to Nebraska. This portion of the schedule will decide whether Sparty will be a contender for the Legends division title. MSU gets Minnesota at home, travels to Iowa (37-6 loss last season in Kinnick), plays Indiana at home, and then closes the season at Northwestern.

Michigan State had a positive turnover margin last season, but loses eight interceptions from player losses. If the offensive line jells quickly this could be a contending team, but if they struggle to establish the run and protect Cousins it could be a long season with five tough road games including four in-conference.

Season Record Prediction: 7-5 Overall (4-4 Big Ten – 4th in Legends Division)

Big Ten Football Predictions by Team
Illinois Football Predictions	Indiana Football Predictions
Ohio State Football Predictions	Penn State Football Predictions
Purdue Football Predictions	Wisconsin Football Predictions
Iowa Football Predictions	Michigan Football Predictions
Michigan State Football Predictions	Minnesota Football Predictions
Nebraska Football Predictions	Northwestern Football Predictions

College Football Predictions
ACC Football Predictions	Big 12 Football Predictions
Conference USA Football Predictions	Independents Football Predictions
PAC 12 Football Predictions	SEC Football Predictions
Big East Football Predictions	Big Ten Football Predictions
MAC Football Predictions	Mountain West Football Predictions
Sun Belt Football Predictions	WAC Football Predictions

Additional Resources:

Bettors World – sees the Spartans as possibly getting nine or more wins.

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