Michigan State at Iowa Line

Written by Steve Janus

The No. 17 Michigan State Spartans are set to go on the road to face the Iowa Hawkeyes in a Big Ten showdown between two teams fighting for the top spot in the Legends division. The Spartans held on for a 31-24 win over Minnesota to improve to 4-1 in the conference, while the Hawkeyes kept their hopes of winning the division alive with a 24-16 upset win over Michigan. The Hawkeyes are 3-2 in Big Ten play, and would be tied for first with a win over the Spartans on Saturday. Iowa has had won each of the last two meetings, including a 37-6 win at home last season.

Taking a look at the week 11 college football spreads, oddsmakers have Michigan State favored by3-points over Iowa with the total set at 47 points.

Michigan State:

The Spartans looked like they were going to be the team to beat in the Big Ten this season after rolling off three straight wins over Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Michigan to open conference play, but they haven’t exactly been all that impressive in their last two games. Michigan State was dominated at Nebraska 24-3 a couple weeks back and really struggled to finish off a Minnesota team they were favored to beat by nearly four touchdowns.

In their last game against Minnesota the Spartans actually trailed 24-21 going into the fourth quarter. They were able to tie it up at 24 on a 40 yard field goal by Dan Conroy and then took the lead for good on a 35 yard touchdown run by Le’Von Bell.

Bell finished the game with 96 yards and two touchdowns, but Michigan State as a team rushed for just 106 yards on 28 attempts. Most of the offense came from senior quarterback Kirk Cousins and the passing attack. Cousins completed 23 of 34 attempts for 296 yards and two touchdowns.

The fact that Michigan State had a big day offensively wasn’t that big of a surprise. Minnesota features one of the worst defenses in the country, allowing just over 427 yards a game. The big surprise was the fact that the Michigan State defense allowed the Golden Gophers to rack up 415 yards of offense. They had no answer for junior quarterback Marqueis Gray, who threw for 295 yards and two touchdowns and ran for another 71 yards. For a team that really prides itself on defense, it was about as bad of a performance as you could have expected.

Iowa Hawkeyes:

This Iowa team has been on a roller coaster season up to this point. The Hawkeyes can look great one week and then completely look lost the next week. Few gave the Hawkeyes much of a shot against Michigan after going on the road and losing to Minnesota the previous week, but the Hawkeyes outplayed the Wolverines from the very start.

Iowa got another big game out of sophomore running back Marcus Coker, who carried 29 times for 132 yards and two scores. Coker came in off a monster 252 yard performance against Minnesota in a losing effort, and has now rushed for at least 124 yards and two touchdowns in each of his last four games. Earlier in the season you might think Coker would struggle to put up a big number against the Spartans defense, but Michigan State has allowed 310 yards on the ground the past two weeks.

Even if Coker is able to run the ball with success, Iowa is going to need a big game out of junior quarterback James Vandenberg and star wide out Marvin McNutt. Vandenberg went an efficient 14 of 21 for 171 yards and a touchdown against Michigan. McNutt had himself another big game with nine catches for 101 yards. The future NFL wide out has caught 22 passes for 386 yards and four touchdowns over his last three games.

While the Michigan State defense seems to be taking a step back, Iowa is coming off one of their most impressive defensive performances of the season. Iowa held an explosive Michigan offense to just 323 yards. They forced the Wolverines into two turnovers and made big play after big play down the stretch. If Iowa can avoid giving up big plays and force a couple turnovers, there is no question they can walk away from this game with a win.

Betting Trends:

Michigan State is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 0.5-3.0.

Iowa is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog.

Be sure to stop back and check out who Steve Janus has picked to win this week in college football. The expert handicapper is 15-5 over his last 20 college selections.

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