Michigan State at Notre Dame Odds

Written by Jack Jones

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish could not have gotten off to a worse start to the 2011 season. They came into the year with high expectations, but have basically given away two games to drop to 0-2. Now they must face a Michigan State Spartans team that is ranked No. 15 in the country and off to an impressive 2-0 start. How will the Irish respond at home Saturday?

According to the Week 3 college football lines, odds makers have installed Notre Dame as a 5-point home favorite for this match-up.

Notre Dame

The Irish lost 23-20 to South Florida in their opener in a game they gave away. Notre Dame doubled the yardage output of USF, but committed five turnovers which they couldn’t overcome. The Irish came out with a great attitude last week against Michigan, jumping ahead 24-7 heading into the fourth quarter. But that’s where it all went wrong.

Notre Dame allowed 21 unanswered points and found themselves trailing 24-28 with just over a minute to go. They responded well, marching down the field in no time as Tommy Rees found Theo Riddick on a 29-yard touchdown pass to take the lead 31-28. From its own 20 with only 23 seconds left, Michigan QB Denard Robinson found Jeremy Gallon wide open on a 64-yard pass play that put the Wolverines on the Notre Dame 16 with 8 seconds left. Robinson found Roy Roundtree on a 16-yard touchdown pass a play later with only 2 seconds remaining to steal the win from the Irish.

The Irish outgained the Wolverines 513-452, but once again were bitten by turnovers. They gave the ball away five times for a second straight week. On the bright side, the Irish got great games from Rees, RB Cierre Wood and WR Malcolm Floyd. Rees went 27 of 39 for 315 yards and three touchdowns to two interceptions, while Wood ran for 135 yards and a score. Floyd caught 13 balls for 159 yards for the Irish. He became the school’s all-time leader in receiving yards, and also matched a school record with his 15th 100-yard game.

Michigan State

While Notre Dame had two stiff tests to open the season, the Spartans were awarded with a couple cupcake opponents. They did not look too sharp in beating Youngstown State 28-6 in their opener. MSU looks much better last week as they topped Florida Atlantic 44-0. They took a 27-0 lead into halftime and never looked back, outgaining the Owls 434-48 while allowing just one first down.

Kirk Cousins was solid at quarterback, completing 16 of 21 passes for 183 yards and two touchdowns. B.J. Cunningham was his favorite receiver, catching five balls for 73 yards. He passed Matt Trannon as Michigan State’s career leader in receptions. The Spartans amassed 188 yards on the ground, including 69 and a score from Le’Veon Bell. MSU will certainly be tested for the first time Saturday.

Betting Trends

This has been a tightly-contested series here recently. Nine of the last eleven meetings have been decided by seven points or less. Michigan State won 34-31 in overtime last year, while Notre Dame won 33-30 in 2009. The home team has taken the last three, but the road team won seven straight meetings prior.

The Spartans are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog, including 1-6 ATS in their last 7 as a dog of 3.5-10.0 points. The Fighting Irish are 18-37-2 ATS in their last 57 home games, and 4-15-2 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite.

If you want winning college football advice this week, then turn to expert handicapper Jack Jones.

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