Michigan State at Ohio State Odds

Written by Jack Jones

Ohio State and Michigan State square off Saturday in a Big Ten battle at Ohio Stadium. This will be the conference opener for both schools, and kick off is set for 3:30 EST. The Buckeyes have won seven straight in this series, including a 45-7 road victory in their most recent meeting in 2008. In fact, they have won six of seven by double-digits. Odds makers expect a much closer contest this weekend.

Looking at the Week 5 college football odds, I find a line of Ohio State -3 with a total set of 44 points.

Ohio State

The Buckeyes opened their season with a 42-0 victory over Akron, and it looked like it would be business as usual in 2011 for this team. Ohio State was outplayed the next week against Toledo, but managed to take advantage of Rockets’ mistakes and won 27-22 at home. In their first road test in Week 3, Ohio State certainly failed. They fell 24-6 to the Miami Hurricanes, throwing for just 35 yards on four completions. Joe Bauserman was replaced by freshman Braxton Miller at quarterback after that performance, and Miller led the Buckeyes to a 37-17 home victory over Colorado in his first-ever collegiate start last week.

Miller completed just 5-of-13 passes for 83 yards in their win over the Buffaloes, but two of those went for touchdowns and he did not turn the ball over. He also showed his dual-threat ability, rushing 17 times for 83 yards. Carlos Hyde has been carrying the load on the ground, rushing for 263 yards and three touchdowns. Jordan Hall has also contributed in the running game, scampering for 171 yards and a score. Ohio State (3-1, 0-0 Big Ten) has had nobody step forward at receiver. Their leading pass-catchers are Devin Smith (8 receptions, 183 yards, three TD) and Jake Stoneburner (8 receptions, 93 yards, four TD).

Ohio State remains one of the more dominant defensive teams in the country. They rank 16th in total defense (276.3 yards/game) and 17th in scoring defense (15.8 points/game). The Buckeyes have struggled thus far on offense, ranking 89th in total offense (340.8 yards/game) and 69th in scoring (28.0 points/game). They have been able to run the ball effectively, averaging 184.0 yards on the ground, but their passing offense is 102nd in the nation (156.8 yards/game). Ohio State will still be without four suspended players for another week in RB Dan Herron, WR DeVier Posey, OL Mike Adams and DE Solomon Thomas.

Michigan State

The Spartans opened their season with a couple of cupcakes at home, beating Youngstown State 28-6 and Florida Atlantic 44-0. Their first road test did not go so well as they were beaten 31-13 by Notre Dame despite outgaining the Irish 358-275. They committed a pair of turnovers and went just 1-of-3 on fourth down to contribute to the loss. Michigan State would improve to 3-0 at home last week with a 45-7 throttling of Central Michigan.

Michigan State (3-1, 0-0 Big Ten) is led by senior QB Kirk Cousins, who is completing 69.2 percent of his passes for 947 yards and five touchdowns to two interceptions. Le’Veon Bell has been their most productive running back, rushing 38 times for 217 yards (5.7/carry) and six touchdowns. Edwin Baker has had a tough time getting going, rushing for 216 yards on 50 carries (4.3/rush) with one score. B.J. Cunningham is proving that he’s one of the top receivers in the conference, catching 29 balls for 428 yards and a touchdown thus far.

Like Ohio State, the Spartans are led by one of the top defenses in the land. MSU ranks 1st in total defense (172.3 yards/game) and 8th in scoring defense (11.0 points/game). Their offense hasn’t been too shabby, either. Michigan State is 51st in total offense (417.3 yards/game) and 47th in scoring (32.5 points/game). The Spartans do have some injury concerns heading into this one with DE Tyler Hoover and T Jared McGaha not expected to play.

Betting Trends

Ohio State is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings with Michigan State, winning all seven games outright. The favorite is 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings, and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

The Buckeyes are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 home games, and13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0. Ohio State is 51-22-1 ATS in their last 74 games overall.

The Spartans are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog, including 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road dog. They are, however, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.

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Other Resources:

The Buckeye Battle Cry – Lists their keys to a victory over Michigan State.
Block O Nation – article covering the past history of the series and a Ohio State 34, Michigan State 20 prediction for the game.
Just Cover Blog – Very detailed article whose writer is taking Ohio State -3.
Scarlet & Game – Lots of good information on this matchup with a predicted win for the Buckeyes.

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