Michigan State vs Wisconsin Line

Written by Steve Janus

This Saturday the No. 13 Michigan State Spartans will take on the No. 15 Wisconsin Badgers in the Big Ten Championship Game. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 ET at Lucas Oil Stadium and will be televised nationally on FOX. This will be the second time these two teams have faced off this season, and if it’s anything like the first matchup fans are in for one heck of a game. The Spartans ruined Wisconsin’s run at a perfect season on a 44-yard Hail Mary pass as time expired to give Michigan State a 37-31 win. The Badgers would lose the following week to Ohio State, but finished with four straight wins to clinch the Legends Division. The Spartans only conference loss came in an ugly 3-24 loss at Nebraska, as they won the Leaders Division with a 7-1 record. The winner of the inaugural Big Ten Championship Game will earn an automatic spot into a BCS bowl game.

Taking a look at the week 14 college football spreads, oddsmakers currently have Wisconsin favored by 9.5-points over Michigan State with the total set at 54.5 points.

Michigan State:

The Spartans ended the regular season with a 10-2 record, and will look to cap off their impressive run by defending their first win over Wisconsin. Michigan State has won four straight overall, including two impressive wins over Indiana and Northwestern to close out the season. The Spartans success is a result of their stingy defense that comes in 3rd in the nation in yards allowed (266.7) and 6th in points allowed (15.4).

While the defense gets a lot of the credit, the Michigan State offense has played extremely well over the last month, averaging 38.5 ppg in their final four games. As good as their defense played against the Badgers in the first matchup, if it wasn’t for their offense they would have never won that game. Kirk Cousins completed 22 of 31 attempts for 290 yards and three touchdowns, while Le’Veon Bell led the ground attack with 87 yards on 16 carries.

When it comes down to it, Cousins will be the difference maker for the Spartans on Saturday. In order for Michigan State to win this game, Cousins has to keep the offense on the field and put points on the board. To give you an idea of just how well he played in the first game, Wisconsin finished the regular season ranked 3rd in the nation against the pass, allowing just 144.5 ypg.

Wisconsin:

The Badgers also finished the year with a 10-2 record, but were two plays away from a perfect 12-0 season. As everyone knows, Wisconsin suffered its first loss on a Hail Mary against Michigan State, but a lot of people forget they lost the very next week to Ohio State on a similar finish. Wisconsin took a 29-26 lead with 1:18 to play in the 4th quarter, but the Buckeyes Braxton Miller would connect on a 40-yard touchdown pass to Devin Smith with 20 seconds left to give Ohio State a 33-29 win.

Those kind of losses can send a team in downward spiral, but the Badgers rebounded nicely with four impressive wins down the stretch. The most impressive of them all was a 45-7 win over Penn State to earn their spot in the Big Ten Championship. Heading into that game the most points the Nittany Lions had allowed was 27 to Alabama and the only Big Ten team to score more than 18 points was Northwestern. That right there shows you just how talented this Badgers team is.

Offensively there weren’t many better than Wisconsin in the regular season. Wisconsin had the 4th best scoring offense at 44.8 ppg and were 12th in the nation in total yards (477.1 ypg). If those two games against Michigan State and Ohio State had gone the other way, both Russell Wilson and Montee Ball would be right near the top in the Heisman race. Wilson threw for 2,692 yards with 28 touchdowns to 3 interceptions and was third on the team with 325 yards and five scores on the ground, while Ball powered the ground game with 1,622 yards and a ridiculous 29 touchdowns.

It’s going to be up to Wilson and Ball if Wisconsin is going to get revenge against the Spartans. Wilson threw for 223 yards and two touchdowns in the first meeting against Michigan State, but also had two costly interceptions. Ball did his part with 115 yards on 18 attempts (6.4 avg.), but was held to just 1 touchdown. Ball scored at least two rushing touchdowns in every game Wisconsin won this season.

Betting Trends:

Michigan State is 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Wisconsin is 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 games overall.

Be sure to stop back and check out who Steve Janus has picked to win this week in college football.

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