2011 Military Bowl Odds

Written by Steve Janus

The Toledo Rockets and Air Force Falcons will conclude their season in the 2011 Military Bowl. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:30 ET on Wednesday, December 28 at RFK Stadium in Washington, DC. This will be the Falcons fifth straight postseason appearance, as they try and win their third straight bowl game under head coach Troy Calhoun. The Rockets will be looking for their first bowl win since beating UTEP in the GMAC Bowl in 2006. Toledo lost 32-34 to FIU last year in the Little Caesars Bowl.

Taking a look at the college football bowl spreads, oddsmakers currently have Toledo favored by 3-points over Air Force with the total set at 70 points.

Toledo:

The Rockets played a tough non-conference schedule (Ohio State, Boise State, Syracuse) that got them off to a disappointing 1-3 start, but would go on to finish the year 8-4 overall and 7-1 in the MAC. They brought home a share of the MAC West title with Northern Illinois, but a 60-63 home loss to the Huskies kept them out of the conference championship game.

Toledo did some serious damage when they had the football this season, finishing 8th in the country at 42.3 ppg. If it wasn’t for a suspect defense this team would be likely sitting with at least 10 wins.

The Rockets played most of the season with Austin Dantin and Terrance Owens splitting time at quarterback. Rarely will you see an offense play this well with a quarterback rotation, but both played extremely well when given the opportunity. Owens threw for 1,812 yards with 15 touchdowns to three interceptions, while Dantin finished with 1,398 yards with an identical 15 touchdowns to three picks. However, the Rockets could go into this game without Dantin, who is listed as questionable after missing the final two games with a concussion.

Not only did Toledo throw all over opposing defenses, but they also had one of the best rushing attacks in the country. The Rockets averaged 212.2 ypg on the ground, behind a trio of talented runners. Senior Adonis Thomas is the best of the bunch. He led the team with 963 yards and tied for the team lead with 11 rushing touchdowns. Fellow senior Morgan Williams also had 11 rushing scores, while adding 671 yards. Sophomore David Fluellen chipped in 465 yards and four touchdowns on just 92 carries.

The Falcons come in with the 6th ranked pass defense in the country (162.7 ypg), but a big reason for that is their inability to stop the run. Air Force finished 108th against the run, allowing 227.8 ypg. Look for Toledo to have their way offensively in this one.

Air Force:

The Falcons will be looking to cap off a disappointing season when they take the field against Toledo. Air Force finished 7-5 overall, but were just 3-5 inside the Mountain West Conference. Coming off a 9-4 season with 14 starters back, many thought the Falcons were going to contend in the conference, but instead they finished with their first losing record inside the Mountain West since 2006.

Air Force did almost all of their damage on the ground this season. They finished 2nd in the country with 320.3 rushing yards a game, while averaging just 138.5 through the air.

The Falcons will use a number of different players in their ground attack, but the three you have to keep an eye on are running backs Asher Clark and Mike DeWitt and quarterback Tim Jefferson. Clark finished with a team-best 1,096 yards to go along with six rushing touchdowns, while DeWitt and Jefferson tied for the team lead with 10 rushing touchdowns a piece.

Normally when you see a team that runs for this many yards, they don’t exactly have the best passing attack. That isn’t the case with Air Force. Jefferson completed 61% of his attempts for 1,478 with 12 touchdowns to just six interceptions. He threw for 221 yards and three scores in the Falcons season finale against Colorado State.

For as bad as Toledo was defensively, they actually finished 27th in the country against the run, holding opposing teams to just 123.2 ypg. However, I wouldn’t put too much emphasis on that state, as they gave up 267 yards on the ground in their loss to Northern Illinois. Jefferson could have another surprisingly big day throwing the ball, as the Rockets pass defense ranked 108th in the country (277.9 ypg).

Betting Trends:

Toledo is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite.

Air Force is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.

Predicted Score: Toledo 37, Air Force 34

Be sure to stop back and check out who Steve Janus has picked to win this college football bowl season.

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