2011 Minnesota Football Predictions
Written by Patrick Webb
Minnesota is transitioning from volatile head coach Tim Brewster to the quiet and effective Jerry Kill (Northern Illinois). Kill understands that he is walking into to a tough situation and that he doesn’t have the depth or talent of a championship-caliber Big Ten team. He is bringing most of his coaching staff to join the Golden Gophers. Kill also brings good recruiting connections in Illinois.
This is likely at least a three-year work-in-progress, but the Gophers should be a much more consistent and fundamental team under Kill. Minnesota loses QB Adam Weber, who started all 50 of the games possible in his career and leaves with every significant passing record in Minnesota history. Marqueis Gray is set to take over under center after splitting reps between QB and WR over the last couple of seasons. Based on past performance he needs to drastically improve his accuracy and decision making to be effective in this role.
The Gophers also lose FB Jon Hoese, who was a solid lead blocker and a nice outlet in the passing game. They’ll also need to replace Bryant Allen at WR, and four experienced offensive lineman. Minnesota has some building blocks on left on defense, losing only three players, but keep in mind that this unit gave up 33 points per game last season.
Gray should fit fairly well into Kill and offensive coordinator Matt Limegrover’s style of offense. He is suited to play out of the shotgun and the Gophers plan to utilize both shotgun and pistol formations.
Make no mistake; this is going to be a run-first offensive attack. Kill’s Northern Illinois teams rushed for 171+ yards per game over his three seasons with them and his Huskies averaged over 10 yards per carry at Minnesota last season as they defeated the Gophers 34-23. Gray is a known quantity as a rushing threat, but the question will be if he can keep defenses honest with his passing. He attempted just 8 passes last season and has only 23 attempts in well over a 100 snaps as a QB. Gray really has no one pushing him as expected challenger Moses Alipate has basically eaten himself into a new position. At 6’5 281 lbs he’s now more of a defensive end than a QB. Gray is expected to be backed up by red-shirt freshman Tom Parish.
The Gophers return the tailback duo of Duane Bennett and De’Leon Eskridge, who combined for 1,227 yards and 10 TDs last year, but aren’t likely to make anyone forget about Laurence Maroney and Marion Barber. Da’Jon McKnight returns at wide receiver. He has great size and athleticism and is coming off a 10 TD season. Eric Lair is a solid blocker and receiving threat at tight end, chipping in with 39 receptions last season.
Minnesota is undergoing another scheme change at the offensive line, but do return three offensive linemen with solid experience. Center Ryan Wynn, guards Chris Bunders and Ryan Orton, and tackle Ed Olson, who started 8 games last season despite a lingering injury, will all see playing time again in 2011. They are expected to be joined by right tackle Jimmy Gjere, who has solid size for a freshman. This unit is losing a lot of depth and experience, but may receive better coaching this season. They will need to pave the way for a program that hasn’t seen its running game average more than 4 yards per carry over the last three seasons.
Defensively the Gophers will use a similar scheme to last season, but need to be more effective in that scheme. They were last in the Big Ten against the rush and gathered only nine sacks in twelve games last season.
They return seven of their top eight defensive linemen from a year ago, including Wilhite at defensive end and defensive tackles Kirksey and Jacobs. This unit will rotate a lot of players as there is no standout in this group, but a name to watch is Ra’Shede Hagemean, who is very athletic for his size at 6’6” and 302 lbs. The Linebackers are deep and talented, including leading tackler from last season Gary Tinsley (90). They also have an impact transfer in Brendan Beal, who has ideal size and athleticism to man the Mike spot for the next three seasons. Tinsley and Beal are joined by Keanan Cooper and Mike Rallis, who both boast a lot of experience.
The secondary returns corners Troy Stoudermire, Michael Carter and Brock Vereen. Kim Royston returns from an injury and the former Wisconsin Badger is expected to lead the defense in his last season. James Manuel is the expected starter at strong safety, but he struggled in both help-coverage and against the run at times last season. There is not a lot of proven depth in the defensive backfield so look for plenty of experimentation as the Gophers try to figure out who can fill which positions.
Minnesota’s special teams struggled last season, finishing last in the nation in net punting. They return punter Dan Oreske (30.9 net yards per punt), who isn’t solely to blame, but who could use some improvement. Kciker Eric Ellestad is gone after making 11 of 17 field goals last year, but the Gophers have another transfer ready at kicker in Chris Hawthorne. The Gopher’s kick return game is solid in the hands of Stoudermire, but the Gophers returned just 13 punts for a 7.6 yard average last season. This is a place where Kill and company can make some headway and immediate improvements.
Schedule Analysis: The Gophers struggled in non-conference play last season, going 1-3 including losses to Northern Illinois (Kill’s former team) and FCS team South Dakota. This season they open at USC, followed by home games against a struggling New Mexico State, a strong MAC team in Miami (OH) and solid FCS program North Dakota State. They open Big Ten play with back-to-back road games at Michigan and Purdue, and then grab a bye, followed by home games against Nebraska and Iowa. After that they’ll visit Michigan State, face Wisconsin at home, play at Northwestern, and close the season at home versus Illinois. This is a tough schedule in which they may be favored only one time (their home game versus New Mexico State). If the Gophers manage to win three conference games Kill should be Coach of the Year.
Final Record Prediction: 2-10 Overall (0-8 Big Ten – 6th in Legends Division)
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