Minnesota at Michigan Line

Written by Steve Janus

The No. 19 Michigan Wolverines will look to remain undefeated when they open up Big Ten play at home against the Minnesota Golden Gophers this Saturday. The Wolverines dominated San Diego State 28-7 to finish up non-conference play 4-0 for the third straight season. Things haven’t been going as great for the 1-3 Golden Gophers, who lost 24-37 at home to North Dakota State this past weekend. Michigan has won three straight in the series, but the two teams haven’t faced each other since Michigan won 29-6 in 2008.

Looking at the week 5 college football lines, oddsmakers currently have the Wolverines favored by 20-points over the Golden Gophers.

Minnesota Golden Gophers:

The Golden Gophers opened the season with a close 17-19 loss at USC, but have been less than impressive in their last three games. Their only win of the season came against Miami (OH), but they were kind of lucky to even win that game as they likely would have loss if it wasn’t for a blocked punt that was returned for a touchdown in the final period.

So far the majority of the offense has come as a result of the running game. The Golden Gophers are averaging 173.8 ypg on the ground, while managing just 179.3 through the air. Starting quarterback Marqueis Gray leads the team with 351 rushing yards on 71 attempts, while running backs Duane Bennett and Donnell Kirkwood have combined for 189 yards and four touchdowns.

Gray and Max Shortell have both seen action at quarterback to start the season, and both have really struggled throwing the ball. Gray is hitting just 50.6% of his passes with three touchdowns to three interceptions, while Shortell is completing only 46.5% of his attempts with two scores to two picks. The offense as a whole has produced just 10 offensive touchdowns in four games. They are going to have to figure out a way to put the ball in the endzone against the Wolverines, or this game is going to get ugly in a hurry.

Michigan Wolverines:

The undefeated non-conference start hasn’t exactly led to a whole lot of success in Big Ten play the past two years, as the Wolverines are just 4-12 in their last 16 conference games. Fans are hoping that new head coach Brady Hoke will change that trend around in 2011, as they are playing much better defensively than they did a year ago under Rich Rodriguez.

Junior quarterback Denard Robinson is one of the most feared running quarterbacks in the country, and is coming off a monster performance on the ground against San Diego State. Robinson rushed 21 times for 200 yards and three scores in the win, giving him 552 yards and five touchdowns on the season. The problem is he seems to have taken a step back in the passing game. Last year he completed 62.5% of his passes with 18 touchdowns to 11 interceptions. This year he has hit just 48.6% of his attempts with six touchdowns to six interceptions.

Robinson has got some help from running backs Fitzgerald Toussaint and Vincent Smith, as the duo has combined for 372 yards and four scores. As far as the receivers go, the only player with more than five catches on the season is Jeremy Gallon with eight. I understand that Michigan doesn’t plan on throwing the ball a lot, as Robinson is attempting less than 20 passes a game, but there is going to be a time this season where they have to pass the ball. One player they need to get more involved is Roy Roundtree. The junior caught 72 passes for 935 yards and seven touchdowns last season, but has just five catches for 44 yards and one score in 2011.

Betting Trends:

Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater.

Michigan is 3-7 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Be sure to check out what Steve Janus has picked to win in week 5 of college football. The expert college football handicapper cashed in a 6-1 premium card in week 4!

Other Resources:

AnnArbor.com – Kyle Meinke interviews Phil Miller about this game.
ISportsWeb – Predicting a 38-13 Michigan victory.

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