Minnesota at Middle Tennessee
Written by Matthew Martz - Google +
The Minnesota Golden Gophers visit the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders on Thursday, September 2 at 7:30 PM EST. This one is sure to be an interesting match up during Week 1 of the season, and the latest odds show Minnesota –3 over Middle Tennessee with a total set of 48.5 points.
Middle Tennessee State was 7-1 in conference, 10-3 overall in 2009, making them the team to beat in the Sunbelt. The Blue Raiders will look to build upon last seasons revamped offense, the most dominant season in school history. They were a passing giant, with 3,000 yards coming from the air and finished 27th nationally by averaging 428 yards per game. Scoring wise they ranked 23rd nationally with 32 ppg.
A big part of that offensive threat was lost when QB Dwight Dasher was suspended for accepting a loan. Taking his place will be sophomore Logan Kilgore who threw for 2,500 yards and 22 touchdowns as a freshman in JUCO. He wins the job after a big spring game where he completed 21 of 34 for 322 yards. RB D.D. Kyle was one of the top conference rushers with 857 yards, and will serve as the main receiving threat.
The defense is led by DE Jamari Lattimore who gained recognition in the conference as a defensive player of the year. Expect him to improve on last year’s 5.5 sacks, 9.5 tackles for a loss, and 3 interceptions. The defense lost Chris McCoy, the main sacker, and will be at risk on the blitz if Sophomore DE Omar McLendon cannot step up his game.
The Golden Gophers finished the 2009 season 6–7 with a 3–5 in conference record. Minnesota will look to use their size against Mid Tennessee, with a big and experienced line supporting its offense. The five returning starters on the line, average 6-foot-4, and 321 pounds.
That’s nearly two inches and 70 pounds bigger than MTSU. While that size is intimidating, Minnesota doesn’t have a lot of offense to talk about. The offense was one of only 10 teams to average less than 100 rushing yards per game in 2009. None of their rushers had even 100 carries or 400 yards for the season, but tailback Anthony Dixon did find the holes in the MTSU’s defense. He rushed for 178 yards in their win over the Blue Raiders last season.
The Gophers will continue their transition away from a ground assault to a more air based offense, looking to improve upon their 75th ranked passing offense (207 ypg) and 21 point per game average. Senior QB Adam Weber is finally recovered from surgery. Last season he threw more interceptions than touchdowns (15-13) and completed just over half his passes. The defense has been picked through and will feature four new starters. Junior tackles Jehwan Edwards and Brandon Kirksey share duties as the anchors. Sophomore LB’s Mike Rallis and Keanon Cooper had good showing in spring practice.
Matt’s Free Prediction: Middle Tennessee +3 – I expect MTSU to win this one in a close game. While Kilgore is new and could buckle under the pressure, he has more ground options than Minnesota does if he is afraid to pass the ball in the air. While the Minnesota defense can keep the score low, the offense cannot be counted on to reduce the pressure. Weber needs time to prove his shoulder is healthy enough for a full workload and may be afraid to make the big pass.
With so few options at receiver, there’s no way Minnesota can be expected to score even 20 points this early in the season. Their main threat Anthony Dixon may have figured out MTSU last season, but will be under double coverage for this match up. No one else can be counted on so even a few end zone visits by MTSU will be enough to get the win.
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