2012 Minnesota Twins Predictions
Written by Steve Janus - Google +
The Minnesota Twins plummeted to the bottom of the AL Central in 2011 with a 63-99 record, and it looks like they could be stuck at the bottom for at least another season. Minnesota appears to have lost more than they have gained in the offseason. Joe Nathan, Michael Cuddyer, and Jason Kubel all signed elsewhere, leaving big holes to fill all over the field. The Twins have surprised in the past, but they are going to need a lot to go right if they are going to contend in 2012. Let’s take a look at their projected starting lineup, starting rotation, and closer situation for the upcoming season.
Projected Lineup
Joe Mauer (Catcher) – Mauer’s 2011 season was limited to just 82 games because of a leg injury and pneumonia. He still hit a respectable .287 with a .360 OBP, but was only able to make 47 starts behind the plate. He also finished with just three home runs, leaving many to believe he will never match his 28 home runs from 2009. If the Twins are going to bounce back, they need their All-Star to stay healthy.
Justin Morneau (First Base) – Morneau is a big question mark coming into 2012. He clearly wasn’t the same player last year after returning from a serious concussion that put his career in jeopardy. He hit just .227 with four home runs and 30 RBI in 69 games. It looks like a complete long shot that he will return to his 2009 form, where he hit 30 homers with 100 RBI, but he has shown some encouraging signs this spring.
Alexi Casillia (Second Base) -Casillia also had his 2011 season cut short because of injuries, but he also showed a lot of promise when he was able to take the field. The 27-year-old has outstanding speed that makes him a strong candidate for a high triples count and 30+ steals if he can stay healthy.
Jamey Carroll (Shortstop) – Carroll will bring some stability to the shortstop position after watching Tsuyoshi Nishioka fail to live up to expectations in his first season. Carroll posted a .290 batting average in 146 games with the Dodgers last season, but the 38-year-old has little to no power and is better off defensively at second base.
Danny Valencia (Third Base) – The Twins are hoping the 27-year-old is ready for a breakout season offensively. While Valencia hit just .246 with 15 home runs and 72 RBI in his first full season, he posted a respectable .275 average after July 1. If he can continue to develop, he has the potential to hit 25 homers and drive in close to 90 runs in 2012.
Ben Revere (Left Field) – Revere is a big time threat when he gets on base. He led all AL rookies with 34 steals in just 117 games. However, he has to show he can do more with the bat to keep his starting job. He hit just .267 with just 14 extra base hits in 450 at-bats in 2011.
Denard Span (Center Field) – Span’s 2011 campaign was limited to just 70 games because of a concussion. He doesn’t have a ton of speed or power, but has put up some solid numbers when healthy. He hit .311 with 97 runs, 10 triples, 68 RBI, and 23 steals in 2009. He figures to hit leadoff for Minnesota, but his value relies more on the health of Mauer and Morneau than anything.
Josh Willingham (Right Field) – Minnesota is counting on Willingham to give the Twins some pop in the middle of the lineup. Willingham hit 29 home runs with 98 RBI in 136 games with the A’s last year. It would be a big plus if he could improve his sub-par .248 average from a year ago, but the Twins would rather see similar power numbers more than a huge jump in average.
Ryan Doumit (Designated Hitter) – Doumit is another new addition that the Twins will be relying on in 2012. Doumit will be primarily used as the DH, but can also catch when Mauer needs a break. Doumit hit .303 with eight home runs and 30 RBI in just 77 games with the Pirates last year. Offensively he has some potential, but that all rides on whether or not he will be able to stay healthy.
Projected Rotation
Carl Pavano (RHP) – Like most of the Twins players in 2011, Pavano didn’t perform up to expectations. The veteran went just 9-13 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.36 WHIP after going 17-11 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 2010. Pavano needs to get back on track if Minnesota is going to turn things around in 2012.
Francisco Liriano (LHP) -Liriano also suffered a setback last year. The 28-year-old lefty went just 9-10 with a 5.09 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 24 starts. Without a clear-cut No. 1, Minnesota desperately needs him to figure things out and pitch like an ace this season.
Scott Baker (RHP) – Baker was in the midst of a breakout season before elbow problems ended his season in early August. He posted a career best 3.14 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, but ended up just 8-6 in 21 starts. His eight wins snapped a streak of three consecutive seasons with a double-digit win total. If the elbow troubles are gone for good, Baker could end up being the best starter the Twins send to the mound in 2012.
Nick Blackburn (RHP) – Blackburn also had a streak of three straight double-digit win seasons snapped in 2011. The 30-year-old went just 7-10 with a 4.49 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. Hard to expect a lot out of Blackburn in 2012, but he could be in line for a 10-win season with a little help from his offense.
Jason Marquis (RHP) – The Twins added Marquis with the hopes that he can eat up a lot of innings, but he hasn’t thrown 200+ innings since 2009. Marquis has two 15-win seasons under his belt, and should benefit from pitching in spacious Target Field. He has surprised in the past, but has to stay healthy if he is going to do anything in his first season with Minnesota.
Projected Closer
Matt Capps (RHP) – Capps was a hit in 2010 when he stepped in for the injured Nathan to save 16 games while posting a 2.00 ERA, but he will have to pitch better than he did in 2011 if he wants to remain the Twins closer. Capps inability to close games last season had fans booing him off the field, but he was dealing with a forearm issue. This is the same guy who saved 42 games between the Nationals and Twins in 2010.
| 2012 Minnesota Twins Odds | |
| World Series | +7500 |
| AL Pennant | +4000 |
| AL Central | +1600 |
| Total Regular Season Wins | O72.5 (-135) |
| U72.5 (+105) |
Over/Under Total Home Runs in the 2012 Regular Season
Joe Mauer – 10.5
Justin Morneau – 18
Josh Willingham – 24.5
Over/Under Total Stolen Bases in the 2012 Regular Season
Ben Revere – 35.5
Over/Under BA in the 2012 Regular Season
Joe Mauer – .322
Justin Morneau – .290
Over/Under Total Wins in the 2012 Regular Season
Francisco Liriano – 8.5
Carl Pavano – 10.5
Scott Baker – 10.5
Over/Under Total Saves in the 2012 Regular Season
Matt Capps – 31
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