Mississippi at Fresno State Odds
Written by Jack Jones - Google +
The Mississippi Rebels will travel to face the Fresno State Bulldogs Saturday in Week 5 college football action. These teams squared off last season, with Ole Miss coming out on top at home by a final of 55-38 as a 2-point favorite. The Rebels racked up 578 total yards in the win, and they’ll be looking for their first big offensive performance of the season this weekend if they are to pull off the upset on the road. This game is set to kick off at 9:15 EST Saturday and it can be seen on ESPN 2.
Taking a look at the odds, I find Fresno State as a 3.5-point favorite with a total set of 53 points.
Mississippi
The Rebels have gotten off to a brutal start to their 2011 campaign. They opened the season with a 14-13 home loss to BYU, blowing a 13-point lead in the fourth quarter. They would pick up an unimpressive 42-24 home victory over Southern Illinois the following week. Ole Miss struggled in their first road game in Week 3, falling 7-30 at Vanderbilt. They played tough against Georgia last Saturday at home, but came up short by a final of 13-27. Both of their touchdowns game on gimmick plays, as they scored on a reverse pass and a reverse punt return. They were outgained by the Bulldogs 475-183 in the loss.
Ole Miss (1-3, 0-2 SEC) has been getting little from their offense all season. The Rebels are ranked 115th in the country in total offense (236.6 yards/game) and 103rd in scoring offense (18.8 points/game). Their defense has been respectable, but not much better. Ole Miss is 83rd in the land in total defense (399.5 yards/game) and 60th in scoring defense (23.8 points/game).
Zack Stoudt has been inconsistent at quarterback, completing just 50.0 percent of his passes for 468 yards and two touchdowns to six interceptions. Running back Jeff Scott has been the only player keeping this offense afloat. He has rushed for 212 yards and three touchdowns thus far. Je-Mes Logan leads all receivers with 13 catches for 164 yards. Donte Moncrief has chipped in nine receptions for 150 yards and two touchdowns.
Fresno State
The Bulldogs have responded nicely over the past few weeks after opening their season with back-to-back road losses to Cal (36-21) and Nebraska (42-29). This team’s motto is that they will play anyone, anywhere, and they played play pretty well despite losing those two road contests. In Week 3, the Bulldogs got their first taste of victory with a 27-22 home win over North Dakota. They put together their best performance of the season last week, winning 48-24 at Idaho.
Fresno State (2-2, 1-0 WAC) is averaging 373.5 yards/game of total offense, good for 77th in the country. They have been excellent in the red zone, which is why they are 53rd in the nation in scoring offense (31.3 points/game). The Bulldogs are 61st in total defense (365.3 yards/game), but they have been soft in the red zone on this side of the ball. Fresno State has the 92nd-ranked unit in scoring defense (31.0 points/game).
Derek Carr, brother of NFL quarterback David Carr, is having a solid sophomore season thus far. He is completing 59.4 percent of his passes for 1,010 yards and nine touchdowns to three interceptions. Robbie Rouse is picking up right where he left off last year at running back, rushing for 477 yards and three touchdowns. He already has 105 carries on the season, averaging just over 26 attempts/game. Jalen Saunders has been a big-play guy, catching 11 balls for 335 yards (30.5/reception) with four touchdowns. Rashad Evans has a team-high 21 receptions for 184 yards and a score. This team has five different receivers with double-digit receptions on the year.
Betting Trends
Ole Miss is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games, but just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The Rebels are a very profitable 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog.
Fresno State is just 16-33-3 ATS in their last 52 home games, and 11-28-1 ATS in their last 40 games as a favorite. They are, however, 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
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