Mississippi State at Arkansas Odds

Written by Jack Jones

The sixth-ranked Arkansas Razorbacks welcome in the Mississippi State Bulldogs Saturday in an SEC West showdown. Arkansas will try not to overlook the Bulldogs this weekend as they have a match-up with top-ranked LSU coming up next Friday. The Razorbacks have had their way with Mississippi State, winning 11 of the last 12 meetings in this series. That includes a thrilling 38-31 road victory in overtime last season. Knile Davis scored on a 7-yard touchdown pass from Ryan Mallet in the first overtime to give Arkansas the victory.

According to the latest college football lines, Arkansas is a 13-point favorite over Mississippi State and the total is set at 53.5 points.

Arkansas

The Razorbacks certainly have a lot to play for over the final two weeks. Arkansas (9-1, 5-1 SEC) is ranked No. 6 in the BCS standings, meaning they still have a shot to play for not only an SEC Championship, but a national title as well. First things first though as they must get ready to play the Bulldogs on Saturday. Arkansas beat Tennessee 49-7 at home last weekend to give them a winning record in SEC play in back-to-back seasons for the first time since joining the league in 1992.

They improved to 6-0 at home this season with their win over the Vols, and they have been nothing short of dominant at home all year. The Razorbacks are outscoring opponents by an average of 30.8 points at home this season, and they’ve won all six games by double-digits. Tyler Wilson threw for 224 yards and three touchdowns, and Dennis Johnson rushed for 97 yards and two scores against Tennessee. While this contest will be played in Little Rock, it is still considered a home game for the Razorbacks.

Arkansas ranks 25th in the country in total offense (455.7 yards/game), including 11th in passing (311.3 yards/game). They are 54th in the FBS in total defense (375.2 yards/game), and just 72nd against the run (172.2 yards/game). Wilson is having a superb year at quarterback, completing 61.7 percent of his passes for 2,850 yards with 18 touchdowns and only five interceptions. Johnson is their leading rusher with 508 yards (6.6/carry) and three scores. Jarius Wright (53 receptions, 906 yards, 10 TD) and Joe Adams (43, 568, two TD) are two electric receivers.

Mississippi State

It’s been a pretty frustrating year for the Bulldogs, who had big expectations for themselves coming into the season. Mississippi State (5-5, 1-5 SEC) has faced a daunting schedule this year, but they are still one win away from becoming bowl eligible. They will close out the season with a home game against Ole Miss, so they certainly have to like their chances. That being said, they’d like to get that signature win they have been craving all year.

The Bulldogs had their chance last week, but fell 7-24 at home to then-No. 3 Alabama. Their offensive woes continues as they were held to just 131 total yards. They did not get on the scoreboard until the fourth quarter on a 12-yard touchdown reception by Chris Smith from Tyler Russell with 12:03 to play. That score got them within 10 points, but the Crimson Tide iced the game with a 32-yard touchdown run from Eddie Lacy with 1:18 remaining. Russell went 13 of 25 passing for 110 yards and that score, while Vick Ballard was held to only 21 rushing yards on nine carries.

Mississippi State ranks 38th in the country in total defense (353.0 yards/game). What has been holding them back is an offense that ranks 74th in the land in total yards (373.3 yards/game). Ballard has done his part, rushing for 811 yards (5.7/carry) and seven touchdowns on the season. Their offense just hasn’t been able to get in much of a rhythm with their rotation at quarterback in Chris Relf (1,013 yards, 7 TD, 6 INT) and Russell (979 yards, 8 TD, 4 INT). The Bulldogs’ top receiver is Arceto Clark, who has only 27 receptions for 391 yards and three scores. Relf is questionable Saturday with a concussion.

Betting Trends

Mississippi State is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall, but just 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a double-digit loss at home.

Arkansas is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games overall, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite, and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 conference games.

Looking to cash in on the college gridiron this weekend? Sign up with expert handicapper Jack Jones, who went 4-1 last Saturday in college football.

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