Mississippi State at Florida

Written by Steve Janus

This Saturday the No.22 ranked Florida Gators will look to bounce back from a second straight loss when they host the Mississippi State Bulldogs in a SEC showdown. The Gators were unable to finish the job against LSU, as they lost 33-29 thanks to a fake field goal and last second touchdown pass, while the Bulldogs cruised to an easy 47-24 win at Houston. The Gators took home a 29-19 win over the Bulldogs last season, it was the first time in 11 games that the home team loss. If you are thinking about betting on the game this weekend, the current college football odds have the Gators favored by 7-points over the Bulldogs at home.

Mississippi State (4-2, 1-2 SEC): The Bulldogs showed their muscle last week against the Cougars, as they ran for 409 yards while allowing Houston just 47 yards on the ground. Running back Vick Ballard has scored a rushing touchdown for the Bulldogs in each game this season, as he ran for 134 yards and three scores last week, giving him 11 touchdowns on the season. Quarterback Chris Relf added another 96 yards and a score on the ground, but did go out with an injury in the third quarter. The Bulldogs also suffered a big blow at the wide out position, as Leon Berry was lost for the season with a dislocated ankle, leaving a big void at the No.2 receiver position.

As good as the Bulldogs looked last week against Houston, they are going to have to play even better if they want to steal a win on the road against a good team like Florida. The Gators have only loss three times in the last six years at home. I think the key for the Bulldogs defensively will be putting pressure on Florida quarterback John Brantley. They are going to need to create some turnovers in this one if they want a chance to win.

Florida (4-2, 2-2 SEC): The Gators offense managed just 243 yards of total offense against the Tigers last week, and it is the second straight game where they struggled to move the football. The thing is the Gators still had a legit chance of winning the game, as they got two big turnovers from the defense and a 88 yard kickoff return for a touchdown from Andre Dobose in the fourth quarter. Defensively the Gators didn’t look so good, as they allowed Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee to complete 16 of 23 attempts for 224 yards and two touchdowns, and also allowed Jefferson to rush for 42 yards and two scores.

Brantley continues to play with a rib injury and sprained thumb, which doesn’t help matters. The Gators are hoping to get running back Jeffery Demps back this week, as he missed last weeks game with a sprained foot. The defense is playing well enough to win, but unless the offense starts turning things around, the Gators are going to continue to find themselves in tough games the rest of the season in the SEC.

Looking at the Odds: The Gators simply haven’t looked like a team that should be favored by a touchdown this week, and that is why I think the right bet is on the Bulldogs to cover the 7-point spread. I still think Florida will take home the win, but I believe this is going to be another close fought game that goes right down to the wire. Brantley playing at less than 100% and the uncertainty of the running game with Demps banged up is a big reason why I think Mississippi State keeps it close in this one. My final score prediction is Florida 31, Mississippi State 27.

Comments

Got something to say?