Missouri at Baylor Odds
Written by Jack Jones - Google +
The Baylor Bears host the Missouri Tigers Saturday in another potential Big 12 shootout. Missouri had won seven straight in this series before a 40-32 home loss to the Bears in their most recent meeting in 2009. Robert Griffin III was out with an injury for that game, but backup quarterback Nick Florence came in and threw for 427 yards and three touchdowns. 2011 first-round pick Blaine Gabbert threw for 468 yards and two scores for the Tigers. Kickoff is set for 7:00 EST on FSN Saturday.
Odds makers give the Bears a slight advantage, listing a line of Baylor -2.5 over Missouri and a total set of 73 points.
Baylor
The Bears jumped out to an impressive 3-0 start this season. Baylor (4-3, 1-3 Big 12) has lost three of four since, including a 59-24 road loss to then-No. 3 Oklahoma State last Saturday. They also have road losses to Kansas State and then-No. 21 Texas A&M. The Bears have been a completely different team at home, going 4-0 at Floyd Casey Stadium this season. They are outscoring opponents 50.8 to 26.2 on average at home.
Baylor actually had several chances to stay right with the Cowboys last weekend, but they squandered most of their opportunities. The Bears outgained Oklahoma State 622-601 for the game, but they committed five turnovers, and twice came up short on fourth-and-1. The Cowboys jumped out to a 35-0 halftime lead, though that score was not nearly indicative of how competitive the game was. Griffin III finished with 425 passing yards and one touchdown with two interceptions. Joseph Randle rushed for four touchdowns to lead Oklahoma State.
The Bears rank 3rd in the country in total offense (560.0 yards/game) and 9th in scoring offense (41.4 points/game). However, they are just 108th in total defense (450.3 yards/game) and 115th in scoring defense (36.4 points/game). Griffin III is putting up Heisman-caliber numbers, completing 75.4 percent of his passes for 2,375 yards with 23 touchdowns to four interceptions. He has also rushed for 322 yards and three scores. Terrance Ganaway is an underrated running back with 658 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. Kendall Wright is their best receiver with 66 receptions for 874 yards and nine scores.
Missouri
The Tigers have been battling ups and downs all season, but they continue to fight. Missouri (4-4, 2-3 Big 12) easily could have packed it in last Saturday after trailing 28-14 to then-No. 16 Texas A&M. Instead, they fought back and won in overtime 38-31. It was the third time this season that the Aggies have blown a lead of 14 points or more to lose. All four of Missouri’s losses this season have come against ranked opponents, and their triumph over the Aggies gave them their first road win in four tries.
Quarterback James Franklin was tremendous last Saturday, throwing two touchdowns passes and running for two more scores. He threw the game-winning touchdown pass to Marcus Lucas in overtime after kicker Trey Barrow missed a 46-yard field goal that would have won it at the end of regulation. Running back Henry Josey finished with 162 rushing yards and a touchdown, and Lucas led all receivers with five receptions for 64 yards and a score.
Missouri ranks 11th in the FBS in total offense (490.3 yards/game) and 30th in scoring offense (34.4 points/game). The Tigers are also 62nd in total defense (382.5 yards/game) and 49th in scoring defense (24.8 points/game). Franklin is completing 60.8 percent of his passes for 1,870 yards with 13 touchdowns to seven interceptions. He is also second on the team in rushing with 542 yards and 10 scores. Josey has been a pleasant surprise in an injury-plagued backfield, rushing for 1,017 yards and seven touchdowns. T.J. Moe leads all receivers with 41 grabs for 516 yards and three scores.
Betting Trends
The Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0, but just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
The Tigers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.
The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series.
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