2011 Missouri Football Predictions

Written by Jack Jones

It was a rough start at Missouri for head coach Gary Pinkel, who suffered through two losing seasons in his first two years on the job. Pinkel has led the Tigers to bowl games in seven of the past eight season since, including a trip to the Insight Bowl last year where they would lose to Iowa 24-27. Missouri still put together a 10-win season, losing only twice in Big 12 play. They upset Oklahoma 36-27 at home for their signature win.

The Tigers return 15 starters this season with nine on offense and six on defense. They do lose QB Blaine Gabbert on offense and DE Aldon Smith on defense, two first-round NFL Draft picks this past April. There is enough talent left in the cupboard to field a competitive team, but it will be tough to replace those two superstars. I’m going to preview both sides of the ball while also giving my prediction on where the Tigers will finish in the 2011 Big 12 standings.

Offense:

The Missouri offense has been potent for several years in a row now thanks to a string of quarterbacks that include Brad Smith, Chase Daniel and Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert led an offense last year that put up 29.8 points and 410 total yards per contest. Younger brother Tyler Gabbert came in last year, but surprisingly transferred after spring ball this season after James Franklin won the #1 spot heading into the fall. That leaves the Tigers with only three scholarship QB’s, with sophomore Ashton Glasser and junior Ryan Howerton next in line. This unit only has 14 career passing attempts combined, but Missouri has done well replacing their last two star quarterbacks.

The Tigers took a running back by committee approach last season, and it worked well as they rushed for 156 yards/game on 4.6/carry. Their top three rushers are back for the 2011 season. Senior De’Vion Moore (517 rushing yards, 8 touchdowns, 5.2/carry) will be the starter after leading the team in rushing a year ago. Junior Kendall Lawrence (422, 4, 5.8) and sophomore Henry Josey (437, 5, 5.8) form the other two-thirds of this three-headed rushing attack.

Missouri’s most experienced unit is their receiving corps, which returns its eight top pass-catchers from a year ago. Junior TJ Moe is the best of the bunch after catching a team-high 92 balls for 1,045 yards and 6 touchdowns. Seniors Jerrell Jackson (50, 656, 3) and Wes Kemp (39, 420, 3) flank Moe on the outside. Senior TE Michael Egnew (90, 762, 5) earned first-team All-American honors last year and figures to play another prominent role in the offense in 2011. Pinkel believes that the freshman WR trio of Bud Sasser, Jimmy Hunt and Marcus Lucas form the best set of athletes he’s ever had here at Missouri, so the future is bright as well. Sophomore QB Franklin will have plenty of weapons to work with to say the least.

With four starters back last year, Missouri’s offensive line paved the way for 156 yards/game on the ground while only allowing 22 sacks. This year they will lose a fourth consecutive first-team All-Big 12 Center in Tim Barnes, who started in all 13 games last year and has been a 3-year starter. Still, this is the most experienced offensive line in the Big 12 with nine of their top 10 linemen back. These nine have combined to make 105 career starts. Pinkel plans to put his OG’s in a three-point stance for the first time since 2005, which he believes will add more power to their running game.

Defense:

The Tigers defense was vastly underrated a year ago. Their stop unit surrendered only 16.1 points and 356 total yards per contest. They will have a hard time matching those numbers in 2011 considering they lose six of their top nine tacklers from last year’s squad. Only six starters return, but there is still plenty of talent here. Pinkel called last year’s defensive line the best he’s ever had. This unit helped the team record 38 sacks, which is the most they’ve had at Missouri in 15 years. They do bring back three of their four starters up front, but lose DE Aldon Smith, who was their top playmaker. Seven of their top eight are back along the defensive line, including second-team All-Big 12 DE’s Jacquies Smith and Brad Madison. DT Terrell Resonno and NT Sheldon Richardson round out the starting rotation.

Missouri has not had a first-team All-American LB in their 120-year history. In 2008, Sean Weatherspoon nearly broke that streak by earning second-team All-American honors. While they lose their #2 tackler in Andrew Cachkar (84), they do return #1 tackler Zaviar Gooden (85), #7 tackler Will Ebner (47) and #10 tackler Andrew Wilson (42) at linebacker. Gooden (4.37 40-yard dash, 405 bench, 40” vertical) is primed for a huge junior season. Look for redshirt freshman Michael Brennan and sophomore Denzel Martin to also figure into the mix.

The secondary made huge improvements last season with all four starters back, allowing just 203 passing yards/game and 56.5% completions. This year they lose three starters, including CB’s Kevin Rutland and Carl Gettis who combined for 92 tackles, 10 pass break-ups and 5 interceptions. Also gone is their #3 tackler in FS Jarrell Harrison, who had 69 stops and two interceptions. Senior SS Kenji Jackson is their lone returning starter in the secondary after finishing with 66 tackles, 3 pass break-ups and 2 picks. Junior Kip Edwards and sophomore EJ Gaines figure to take over the starting corner spots, while sophomore Tavon Bolen steps in a free safety. This inexperienced group should suffer a big drop in production in 2011.

Big 12 Prediction: 5th Place – Missouri is a cut below the top four in this conference talent-wise. They do have several key contributors coming back, but they have to break in a new starting quarterback while also having to replace Aldon Smith and almost their entire secondary. QB James Franklin will get tested early with their first two road games coming at Arizona State and Oklahoma. They will get Oklahoma State and Texas at home this year, meaning I could see them finishing one or possibly two places higher. But in the end, they are going to suffer a drop-off in production both offensively and defensively, which means likely a middle-of-the-pack finish in the Big 12.

Big 12 Football Predictions by Team
Iowa State Football Predictions	Kansas Football Predictions
Kansas State Football Predictions	Missouri Football Predictions
Baylor Football Predictions	Oklahoma Football Predictions
Oklahoma State Football Predictions	Texas Football Predictions
Texas A&M Football Predictions	Texas Tech Football Predictions

College Football Predictions
ACC Football Predictions	Big 12 Football Predictions
Conference USA Football Predictions	Independents Football Predictions
PAC 12 Football Predictions	SEC Football Predictions
Big East Football Predictions	Big Ten Football Predictions
MAC Football Predictions	Mountain West Football Predictions
Sun Belt Football Predictions	WAC Football Predictions

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