Missouri vs Memphis: Sweet 16 Picks & Predictions

Written March 24, 2009 by Anthony Moretti

missouri-memphis-sweet-sixteen-predictions-032409 The #3 seed Missouri Tigers battle the #2 seed Memphis Tigers in one half of the West Region’s Sweet 16 match ups. The game is scheduled for Thursday, March 26th, at around 9:37 PM EST. Memphis always catches some grief in the NCAA Tournament coming out of Conference USA, but, at least in the past few years, they’ve played some of their best basketball in the tournament. They survived in the first round against Cal State Northridge, pulling away in the second half to eventually win by 11 points. Memphis then faced off against Maryland, a game the Tigers dominated from start to finish. Missouri comes into this game off of a close-call game against Marquette in the second round. This followed up their performance in the first round, a 19-point thrashing of Cornell. Looking at the NCAA basketball lines for Thursday’s game, the Memphis Tigers are favored by 4.5 points over the Missouri Tigers and the total for the game is set for 141 points.

Missouri Tigers: The Tigers were one of the most prolific scoring teams coming into the tournament at 81.8 points per game. The scoring has held true for Missouri in the first two rounds of the tournament scoring 78 points against Cornell in the opening round, then putting up 83 against Marquette. The Tigers shoot and impressive 47.2 percent from the field on offense and have the second-best assist-to-turnover ratio of any team in the tournament (+1.5). The key for Missouri against Memphis is how well they can establish their own tempo in the game. The Tigers like to play fast and try to force opponents into making mistakes on both sides of the ball. They’ll run into trouble if Memphis easily breaks their press. The Tigers may also suffer if Memphis slows the pace of the game down. Missouri needs to score a lot of points in transition, and they need their forward duo of DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons to play well on both ends of the court if they want to advance to the Elite 8.

Memphis Tigers: Memphis survived a scare in the first round of the tournament against Cal State Northridge. They ended up winning the game by 11 points, but it was much closer than that for the majority of the game. In the second round, the Tigers drew Maryland and quickly disposed of the Terps by a final score of 89-70. With a close game under their belt, perhaps Memphis is ready to roll in the West Region. This will be no easy task against the high-flying Missouri Tigers on Thursday. To win this game Memphis will need to play well on defense and control the ball on offense. This means limiting turnovers and not forcing shots. Missouri doesn’t have great size inside and I think Memphis has an advantage in the paint with Dozier and Taggart. They’ll run into problems if they get sucked into playing at Missouri’s pace. It’s not that Memphis doesn’t have shooters, they just aren’t as good in transition as Missouri is.

The key word in this game is tempo. If Missouri can keep the tempo up, force turnovers, keep Memphis off-balance on offense, and score points in transition, they should win. If Memphis can slow the game down, beat the press, and force Missouri to try and stop them in the half-court game, they should win. In the end I see Memphis winning this tempo battle and advancing to the Elite 8.

Predicted Score: Memphis 76, Missouri 70

Play on: Memphis Tigers -4.5, Memphis/Missouri OVER 141

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