Which MLB Manager will be Fired First in 2012


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The 2012 MLB season is underway and that got us thinking about which manager will be the first to be fired this season. Last year A’s manager Bob Green was the first to go and more followed as the season went on. There are a number of candidates to get canned before the season is finished in 2012.

Here is a look at the five managers who head into the season with the best odds to be fired, and a look at whether or not we think they will actually end up without a job by the end of the year.

Bud Black (3/1) – San Diego Padres:

Black has not been able to get the Padres into the playoffs since taking over the team in 2007. His best season came in 2010. San Diego finished came out of nowhere to win 90 games. As a result, Black won the NL Manager of the Year award, but that season was doomed by a colossal collapse in the second half. That horrible finish had Black listed as one of the favorites to get fired first in 2011, but he was able to last the entire season, despite the Padres finishing last in the NL West with a 71-91 record. Unfortunately for Black the Padres don’t have the pieces in place to contend in 2012, and a slow start will really put some pressure on GM Josh Byrnes to pull the plug.

Brad Mills (5/1) – Houston Astros:

The Astros finished with the worst record in baseball in 2011, finishing a dismal 56-106. A big reason why you find Mills as one of the prime candidates to end up without a job before the season concludes. Mills took over the manager job in Houston in 2010, leading the Astros to a surprising 4th place finish. There is no denying the team is in the midst of a major rebuilding phase. Houston has no intentions of contending for a division title this season, which is a big reason why I think Mills could make it to the finish line.

Dusty Baker (11/2) – Cincinnati Reds:

The Reds were one of the biggest disappointments last year. After winning the NL Central with a 91-71 record in 2011, the Reds went 79-93. Owner, Bob Castellini, was not happy at all about the teams slide last season, and Baker has found himself on the hot seat in Cincinnati. However, I think the Reds are primed for a bounce back season. As long as they are in contention for the division title or a playoff spot, I can’t see Baker getting

Buck Showalter (6/1) – Baltimore Orioles:

Showalter took over the Orioles late in the 2010 season, and it really looked like he was going to turn things around a lot faster than anyone expected. Those hopes were brought back to reality last season, as the Orioles finished with a 69-93 record in the first full season under Showalter. Winning in the AL East is no easy task, and I strongly believe management knows that Showalter can’t work miracles. The guy has a great history of turning a franchise into a contender, but it takes time to get the right players. I would be shocked if Showalter didn’t make it to the end of the season.

Ron Gardenhire (6/1) – Minnesota Twins:

The Twins hit rock bottom in 2011, finishing last in the AL Central with a 63-99 record. This could be the season where the Twins part ways with Gardenhire, who has managed for Minnesota the last 10 years. Gardenhire seems to have a pretty good relationship with the front office, but another poor showing like last year and they might not have a choice but to shake things up.

Complete list of Odds

Manager Team Odds
Bud Black Padres 3/1
Brad Mills Astros 5/1
Dusty Baker Reds 11/2
Ron Gardenhire Twins 6/1
Buck Showalter Orioles 6/1
Jim Tracy Rockies 9/1
Charlie Manuel Phillies 10/1
Joe Girardi Yankees 10/1
Bruce Bochy Giants 10/1
Mike Scioscia Angels 12/1
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