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2011 MLB Playoffs Predictions

After a wild last night of the season, it’s time to start thinking about this season’s playoff matchups.  Here are my predictions on each series up through the World Series.  You can view the betting lines on each individual game by visiting our live odds feed throughout the playoffs.

ALDS

Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers – The Rays just completed one of the greatest September comebacks in history, capped off by one of the best single-game comebacks you’re ever likely to see.  Most of the fault does lie with the Boston Redsox and their collapse, but you can’t deny that Tampa did everything they need to in order to make the postseason.  The Rays are going to be tough in any playoff situation because of their excellent pitching.

Texas won their last six games, while their biggest competition, the LA Angels, lost their last four games and gave the Rangers a comfortable ten-point lead in the division to finish the season.  The Rangers have the best home-scoring offense in the Major Leagues, averaging over 6 runs per game.  They ended the season ranked 19th in runs-allowed per game, but playing at home in this series obviously gives them an advantage.

It’s hard to deny that momentum plays a huge role in baseball.  The Rangers did win their last six games, but the Rays won in such dramatic fashion that it’s easy to imagine them riding that energy into this series.  In playoff baseball I think you have to look at pitching before hitting, and even pitching before home field advantage.  I’m taking the Rays to win this series.

Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees -  The Tigers boast the best pitcher in baseball with Justin Verlander and the addition of Doug Fister late in the season appears to be exactly the boost their rotation needed.  Detroit doesn’t get the kind of press that Boston or New York does, but they ended up ranking 4th in total runs scored this season thanks in part to another stellar season from their offensive anchor, Miguel Cabrera.

The Yankees ranked second to only the Boston Red Sox in runs scored this season and it’s hard to deny that they field one of the most intimidating lineups in baseball.  New York also has a strong bullpen, but their biggest challenge this season comes from the rotation, which, after C.C. Sabathia, isn’t going to intimidate anyone.

Detroit certainly has some great players between Cabrera, Verlander and Victory Martinez.  The problem is that they don’t have the top-to-bottom lineup depth that the Yankees have.  You have to like them every time Verlander takes the mound in this series, but ultimately I believe New York’s bats make the difference in a long series.

NLDS

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers – The Diamondbacks really came out of nowhere this year and ended up running away from the San Francisco Giants in the NL West.  The biggest reason for their success has been starter Ian Kennedy, who finished the regular season with 21 wins, a 2.88 ERA and 198 strikeouts.  The emergence of Justin Upton on offense has also helped the D-backs get to where they are today.  The young outfielder ended the year with a .289 average, 31 homeruns, 21 stolen bases and 105 runs scored.

The Brewers were the most dominant home team in baseball this season (57-24), so any series in which they play the majority of the games in Milwaukee is going to give them a huge boost, regardless of the opponent.  The Brew-Crew already had a potent offense coming into this season with Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder and Corey Hart, but added Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum to their starting rotation and the moves have paid off.

The Diamondbacks are a great story of rags-to-riches this year, but Milwaukee has been too good at home.  Arizona has the worst odds (6 to 1) of any of the teams remaining in the National League and the fact that they have to play the Brewers in the first round has a lot to do with that.  Milwaukee advances to the NLCS.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies – The Cardinals ended the regular season with an amazing run.  After falling down by as much a 8.5 games in the NL Wildcard race to the Atlanta Braves, the Cards surged back, while Atlanta suffered a collapse matched only by the Boston Redsox.  St. Louis manager Tony LaRussa gets as much out of his utility players as anyone in the game, and those are the kinds of players that give opposing teams headaches in the postseason.  Chris Carpenter has been a great number one starter this year, but the rest of the rotation has been pieced together throughout the season.  It’s also worth noting that the Cardinals bullpen gave up more leads than any team except for the Astros this season, which is something to consider heading into this series.

The Phillies were the odds-on favorite to win the NL pennant this season, and they haven’t disappointed, earning the best regular season record in the Majors.  Philadelphia’s offense was surprisingly quiet this year (.253 team batting average, just 13th in runs scored in MLB), but their pitching is the best in baseball.

Philadelphia is built for the postseason and it’s hard to imagine anyone getting through the top of this rotation in a five-game series.  The Cardinals do have some momentum on their side, which is why I think this will be a closer series than you might expect as St. Louis won six of nine meetings in the regular season.

ALCS

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees – The Yankees offense can only take them so far, and I think they’ll hit their tipping-point against the Rays and their excellent pitching staff.  Tampa is getting hot at the right time to make a run in the playoffs and that, combined with fact that their pitching is simply better than New York’s, I believe will propel them to the World Series this year.

NLCS

Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies – As I said before, the Phillies are built for the postseason.  I really like what the Brewers have done with their rotation (and their team as a whole), but I do not think their starters and bullpen can match what Philadelphia brings to the table night-in and night-out.  The Phillies are still the favorites (1 to 2) to win the NL pennant and I’m not betting against them.

World Series

Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies – It would be a great story if the Rays made the World Series after the incredible last day of the season that got them into the playoffs, but I believe they have all of the pieces they need to do just that.  The problems is that when they get there it should be the Phillies waiting for them.  No other team was more successful this regular season, and while that doesn’t always translate into titles, this looks like one of those years that it will.

2011 World Series Champions:  Philadelphia Phillies