Monitor Home Play Umpires
Written July 25, 2008 by Jack Jones
If you want to take your handicapping up a notch, then you need to monitor home plate umpires. It’s going to take a lot of work to win money this summer and if you do not feel like doing it then take a look at the premium packages available at this site.
It used to be that the strike zones were different in the American and National Leagues.
There was a time when American League umpires, who continued to wear outside chest protectors, gave a pitcher the high strike. Their National League counterparts behind the plate, who had already adopted inside protectors, gave a pitcher the low strike because they had more flexibility in bending over and could see that pitch better.
The last umpire to wear an outside protector was Jerry Neudecker in 1985. All plate umpires wear inside protectors today, and work in both leagues.
So things have changed a bit in the recent past, and every umpire will continue to be different. We can tell a little bit about which way a total will go, or whether the home or visiting team is more likely to win, simply by checking out the umpires.
You would think that the size of a strike zone would be the biggest differentiating factor in whether games are over or under with an umpire behind the dish. If an ump doesn’t give the pitcher a ton of strikes, he falls behind, and that means better pitches for the hitters. Or it means less strikeouts, more walks, and more baserunners – which means more issues for the pitcher.
The umpires at the high end of the over totals are ones who, like you would think, yield more walks in a game. Mike Everitt is over in 17 of 24 games at “the can”, as the umpires derogatorily call it, and pitchers walk a relatively high 7.8 batters per game when he is back there. However, pitchers strike out 13.7 batters per game – which is about on par with the rest of the league.
This tells us that the strikeout is not as much of a negative to a big inning as we thought, but that a walk contributes more to offense that was previously thought. Look at the Moneyball ideas of Billy Beane, where walks are valued to the point that Kevin Youkilis becomes a highly sought after player. The walk is of premium importance, and can affect a pitcher more than just about anything with the exception of a balk.
As far as the strikeout goes, it’s not as big of an impediment to runs as you would think. Double plays kill innings, and one thing a strikeout has going for it is that it’s not a double play. As well, a strikeout gives a team a chance to run; a strikeout takes at least three pitches to materialize, while a pop-up can often happen on a first pitch.
It’s interesting to see what can happen with a different umpire behind the dish, and with few exceptions (Larry Young is one), high walk totals for an umpire mean more overs in games. This is worth reviewing for the savvy player.