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Morehead State at Murray State

The Morehead State Eagles will head out on the road tonight to take on the Murray State Racers in this Ohio Valley Conference showdown scheduled for a 9:00 P.M. ET tip-off. The odds makers opened Murray State as a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 125.5. Line movement shows that Murray State is now -4 at almost all outlets while the total is still sitting at 125.5 and I have seen a few 126.

Morehead State (21-8, 12-4) enters this matchup on a 9 game winning streak in which they are 6-3 ATS. The success that the Eagles are having during this 9 game winning streak is due to the outstanding offensive play and the strong defense they are playing. The eagles are averaging 70.8 points per game the last 9 games and they are allowing just 61.2 points per game in this winning streak.  Even though they are playing great defense the offense has helped the over go 5-4 during the winning streak.  The Eagles this season on the road have struggled offensively averaging just 65 points per game while their defense is allowing 64.1 points per game.

Murray State (21-7, 12-4) enters this matchup winning 9 out of their last 10 games.  The Racers are having a large amount of success this season thanks to the outstanding defense that they are playing.  Murray State is allowing just 61 points per game on the year while at home though they are allowing just 55.3 points per game and teams are shooting just 38.5 % on them. Over the last five games the defense has gotten even better allowing just 53.4 points per game. This defense has gotten so strong they have only allowed 60 plus points in 1 of their last 6 games. The offense though for Murray State has been struggling averaging just 62 points per game the last five games.  The under is 7-2 this season for Murray State against teams above .500. The under is 11-5 after a win for Murray State.  The under is 8-0 the last 8 games the Racers have allowed less than 50 points the previous game. The under is 11-3 the last 14 games following a win of 20 or more points for the Racers.

These two teams played back in early December and we saw that game go over the posted total of 121 by 19 points. The sportsbooks have adjusted to that and made this total line a little bit higher.  This game features two teams that are playing great defense and one of the teams is struggling offensively.  These are not very fast pace teams that average a lot of possession we should see just about 61-66 possessions at the most each tonight. Look for this game to have great defense and limited offense with the possessions being down we should see a lot of time eaten off the clock. Let’s play the under tonight and cash a free play winning ticket.

With our free pick for tonight I will take Morehead State and Murray State under 126.