2011 Moutain West Football Predictions
Written by Steve Janus
The Mountain West looked like it had the potential to become a very powerful conference when Boise State decided to leave the WAC to join, but since the Broncos declared their move Utah has left for the PAC-12, BYU is now an independent, and TCU is leaving after this season to join the Big East. There’s no doubt that the conference won’t be as competitive without Utah and BYU, but it will be interesting to see if TCU or Air Force can slow down the Boise State. Here is a look at how I see the MWC playing out in 2011.
1. Boise State Broncos – The Broncos were an incredible 75-5 in their 10 seasons in the WAC, and it doesn’t appear that they will have much trouble repeating that success in the MWC. Boise State comes into 2011 as a legit National Title contender with 14 starters back from a team that went 12-1 in 2010. Quarterback Kellen Moore is the difference maker for this team, and should have no trouble picking apart the defenses in this conference. The two teams that figure to even have a chance against Boise State are TCU and Air Force, but both of those games will be played on the blue turf of Bronco Stadium.
2. Air Force Falcons – Most people will expect to see TCU picked to finish second, but I really feel like this Air Force team is ready to make some noise in 2011. Head coach Troy Calhoun has done an amazing job in his four years at Air Force (34-18), and will send out his most experienced team since taking over the job in 2007. The Falcons rushed for a ridiculous 307 yards a game in 2010, and will have their top two rushers back in running back Asher Clark and quarterback Tim Jefferson. While Air Force has little chance of beating Boise State on the road, I am calling for them to beat TCU to finish second.
3. TCU Horned Frogs - TCU has done an amazing job of reloading over the last three seasons, but they bring back just eight starters in 2011, and have to replace the school’s all-time leading passer in Andy Dalton, who threw for 2,857 yards and 27 touchdowns in 2010. I still think this is going to be a good football team, but with road games against both Boise State and Air Force I don’t think they have a very good shot at repeating as conference champs. With this being their last season in the MWC, you can expect every team inside the conference to do whatever it takes to beat them, which could lead to some upsets and a lower finish than what I have them predicted at.
4. San Diego State Aztecs – The Aztecs put together a solid 9-4 season that included a 35-14 win over Navy in the Poinsettia Bowl, and I look for this team to put together another solid season in 2011. They do have to go through a coaching change, as Brady Hoke is now the new Michigan head coach. It should be a smooth transition though, as defensive coordinator Rocky Long takes over. San Diego State does bring back starting quarterback Ryan Linley, who threw for 3,830 yards and 28 touchdowns, but the key for 2011 will be overcoming the losses of wide outs Vincent Brown and DeMarco Sampson, who combined for 136 catches and 18 touchdowns.
5. Colorado State Rams – The Rams suffered through a tough 2010 season, as they went just 3-9 overall and only 2-6 in the MWC, but a lot of that had to do with the inexperience of freshman quarterback Pete Thomas. I look for Thomas to really make some significant improvements this season, which should have the Rams competing at a much higher level. There are still some concerns with the defense, as they allowed 34.7 ppg last year. What will likely hold the Rams back is three of their home games are against Boise State, Air Force, and San Diego State, leaving most of their winnable games on the road.
6. Wyoming Cowboys – The Cowboys are coming off a disappointing 2010 season. They went just 3-9 (1-7 MWC), despite returning 15 starters from a team that went 7-6 and won a bowl game in 2009. Wyoming has 14 starters back for the upcoming season, but lose starting quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels, their top two receiving threats, and their top two tacklers from 2010. Luckily they draw both New Mexico and UNLV at home, which should secure them at No. 7, but it looks like those are their only two winnable games in the MWC. With three freshman competing for the starting quarterback job, there’s a good chance this team could fail to meet expectations and finish at the bottom.
7. New Mexico Lobos – It was a miserable 2010 for New Mexico, as they went just 1-11 on the year. Offensively they struggled to put up points (15.8 ppg) and defensively they couldn’t stop anyone (44.3 ppg). It figures to be a do or die season for head coach Mike Locksley, who has won just two games in his first two seasons. While I have the Lobos pegged near the bottom again in 2011, this should be more competitive with 15 starters back and a bunch of very talented transfers coming in. They should be able to beat UNLV at home, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t pull off at least one upset in conference play. Still this is a team that lacks a lot of talent, and will be lucky to get to four wins total in 2011.
8. UNLV Rebels – The Rebels finished 2010 with a 2-11 record. Their two wins came against Wyoming and New Mexico, who I think they will struggle to compete with this season (both on the road). They have just 11 starters back from last year. Only four of those starters come back on a defense that allowed 39.7 ppg in 2010. The lack of experience and talent on the defensive side of the ball will make it hard for the Rebels to stop teams from racking up huge numbers offensively, and that has me calling for UNLV to go 0-8 in the MWC.
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What an absolutely boring conference. It’s basically eight high school teams that no one gives a flip about and it will be even worse next year when TCU goes to the Big Least Conference.! The 75-5 record Boise State had in the WAC means nothing considering the total joke of a schedule they played and the quality (or lack of) of all the teams in the WAC. The MWC is simply the WAC 2.