2011 Franklin Am. Mortgage Music City Bowl Odds

Written by Steve Janus

This Friday the Mississippi State Bulldogs and the Wake Forest Demon Deacons will face off in the 2011 Music City Bowl. Kickoff is scheduled for 6:40 ET at LP Field (Nashville, TN) and will be televised nationally on ESPN. This will be Mississippi State’s second straight trip to a bowl game, while Wake Forest makes their first postseason appearance since beating Navy in the 2008 EagleBank Bowl.

Taking a look at the college football bowl spreads, oddsmakers currently have Mississippi State favored by 6.5-points over Wake Forest with the total set at 48 points.

Wake Forest:

The Demon Deacons were one of the big surprises in the ACC this season. Most experts had Wake Forest picked to finish last in the Atlantic after they went just 3-9 overall and 1-7 inside the conference last year. While the Demon Deacons finished the year just 6-6, they finished 3rd in the Atlantic with a 5-3 conference mark.

Wake forest will be looking to shake off a poor finish to the season. After starting the year 4-1, with an impressive 35-30 win over Florida State, the Demon Deacons went just 2-5 over their last seven games, including a 7-41 loss at home to Vanderbilt in the regular season finale.

Offensively the Demon Decons rely heavily on the play of sophomore quarterback Tanner Price, who really made some big time progress in his second season as a starter. Price completed 61% of his passes for 2,803 yards with 20 touchdowns to just six interceptions, after completing just 57% of his attempts for 1,349 yards (7 TDs/8 INT) as a freshman.

Price had a lot of success throwing to junior Chris Givens and sophomore Michael Campanaro. Givens had a team-high 74 receptions for 1,276 yards and nine touchdowns, while Campanro hauled in 63 passes for 705 yards and two scores.

While the Demon Deacons finished 96th in the country in rushing, averaging just 118.9 ypg, they seemed to find new life on the ground late in the season. Wake Forest averaged 143.2 rushing yards over their last 5 games. Sophomore running back Josh Harris came into the season with big expectations after rushing for 720 yards and seven touchdowns as a freshman, but he spent most of the last seven games on the sideline with an injury. Senior backup Brandon Pendergrass really ran the ball well in his place, as he ended up leading the team with 740 yards and eight touchdowns. Harris is expected to be available against Mississippi State, giving the Demon Deacons two solid options out of the backfield.

I think Wake Forest is going to have a lot of success moving the ball against the Bulldogs. Mississippi State finished 67th against the run, allowing 162.9 ypg on the ground. Some might be concerned when they see the Bulldogs finished 23rd against the pass, allowing just 194.9 ypg, but a big reason that number is so low is because the SEC doesn’t feature a lot of big time passing offenses. In their 17-44 loss toArkansas they allowed the Razorbacks to pile on 373 passing yards.

Mississippi State:

The Bulldogs came into the season with some pretty lofty expectations after finishing up 2010 9-4, which included a 52-14 win over Michigan in the Gator Bowl. Mississippi State had 16 starters back and were thinking they could compete with any team in the SEC. That wasn’t the case at all. The Bulldogs ended up going 2-6 in the SEC and just 6-6 overall. They did end the season with a 31-3 win over Mississippi, which got them to a bowl game, but the Rebels were 0-7 in conference play.

Mississippi State came into the season expecting to see some big improvements out of senior quarterback Chris Relf, but his poor play landed him a spot on the bench in the second half of the season. Sophomore backup Tyler Russell took better care of the football, but didn’t really give the passing game a huge spark. The Bulldogs finished the season 92nd in passing offense, averaging just 186.3 ypg. Relf did have to make a spot start in the season finale against Mississippi, but Russell is expected to play.

Most of the offense came from senior running back Vick Ballard, but he too struggled to live up to expectations. Ballard rushed for 1009 yards, topping his 968 yards as a junior, but had just eight rushing touchdowns, well below his 19 from a season ago.

The key to this game will be whether or not the Bulldogs offense can take advantage of a soft Wake Forest defense. The Demon Deacons finished just 67th against the run (162.9 ypg) and 71st against the pass (236.2 ypg).

Betting Trends:

Wake Forest is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.

Mississippi State is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Bowl games.

Predicted Score: Mississippi State 23, Wake Forest 20

Be sure to stop back and check out who Steve Janus has picked to win the rest of the college football bowl season. Also, check out our 2011 college football bowl predictions for a preview of every bowl game.

Comments

Got something to say?