2012 National League East Predictions


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Once again the Philadelphia Phillies took home the NL East division title in 2011. The Phillies won their fifth straight division title with a league-best 102-60 regular season record. The Atlanta Braves finished second with a 89-73 record, while the Washington Nationals emerged from the bottom of the division to finish third at 80-81. The Phillies are the favorites to win the division in 2012, but it doesn’t figure to be quite as easy this time around. Not only are the Braves a serious contender, but the Nationals and Miami Marlins have made some big moves that figure to give them an outside shot at winning this division.

Here is a look at how I see the NL East playing out this year, plus I’ve thrown in the odds for each team to win the division. If you want to see where I have all 30 teams projected to finish this season, check out my 2012 MLB predictions.

1. Philadelphia Phillies (-250) -  The Phillies have the best rotation in baseball with Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Vance Worley, and Joe Blanton. The starting five give the Phillies a chance to win every time they take the field. While Ryan Madson was an efficient closer for the Phillies in 2011, the addition of Jonathan Papelbon gives them one of most reliable closers in all of baseball. The offense is getting up there in age and will be without slugger Ryan Howard until at least May, but they simply don’t need a lot of offense to win games. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Phillies won 100 games again in 2012.

2. Atlanta Braves (+600) – The Braves were primed to win the NL Wild card before a late season collapse ruined their season. It will be interesting to see how Atlanta responds to their horrible finish. It appears the Braves are confident they have what it takes to overtake the Phillies, as they didn’t to a whole lot to improve their roster from a year ago. Look for Atlanta to come out extremely motivated to put 2011 behind them, but I still don’t think they have enough to win the division.

3. Miami Marlins (+550) – The Marlins went out and added shortstop Jose Reyes and a couple of veteran starters in Mark Buehrle and Carlos Zambrano. They also get back ace Josh Johnson after injures pretty much wiped out his 2011. The key to the Marlins making a push in the East will be the play of Hanley Rameriz. If he can return to form and play like an MVP in 2012, the Marlins will be right there with Atlanta for a potential Wild Card spot.

4. Washington Nationals (+800) – The Nationals are a team to watch out for in 2012. They have really put together a solid nucleus on both sides of the ball. The addition of starter Gio Gonzalez gives them a loaded top half of the rotation with Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmerman. Offensively they need Ryan Zimmerman to stay healthy and Jason Werth to figure things out after a horrible first season in Washington. I had a hard time picking the Nationals this low in the standings, but I think they are still a year or two away from seriously contending for a division title.

5. New York Mets (+5000) – The Mets have completely fallen out of contention over the last few years, and 2012 could be the worst season yet. The loss of Reyes really hurts them offensively, but they simply don’t have the starting pitching to contend with the other three teams in this division. Even if Johan Santana returns to form, they rest of the rotation is nothing to get excited about.

MLB Predictions by Team

American League
Tampa Bay Rays Baltimore Orioles Toronto Blue Jays New York Yankees
Detroit Tigers Chicago White Sox Kansas City Royals Minnesota Twins
Texas Rangers Oakland Athletics Boston Red Sox Cleveland Indians
Seattle Mariners Los Angeles Angels
National League
Washington Nationals Atlanta Braves New York Mets Philadelphia Phillies
Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers Houston Astros Pittsburgh Pirates
Arizona Diamondbacks Colorado Rockies San Francisco Giants San Diego Padres
Miami Marlins St. Louis Cardinals Los Angeles Dodgers Chicago Cubs
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