2011 Navy Football Predictions

Written by Jack Jones

The Navy football program has stood up to Notre Dame over the past few seasons. They beat the Irish for the first time in 44 years in a triple-overtime thriller back in 2007. The Midshipmen have now won three of the last four meetings overall, while taking four straight Independent championships in the process. Navy is coming off a 9-4 campaign from 2010, improving Ken Niumatalolo’s record to 27-14 in his three seasons as their head man.

Service academies don’t usually have many returning starters, so you can’t really say they are going to be down just because they only have 10 starters coming back from last year’s squad. Navy has been at their best in the role of the underdog over the past several seasons, and they will be playing that role again in 2011. Here is a look at their personnel on offense and defense, as well as my prediction on where they will finish against the other three Independents.

Offense:

Navy featured a very explosive offense last season, one that amassed 29.7 points and 405 total yards/game. Their rushing attack was once again dominant as they averaged 285 yards/game and 5.3/carry on the ground. The catalyst was QB Ricky Dobbs, who led the team with 967 yards and 14 touchdowns. He also threw for 1,527 yards and 13 touchdowns, the most-ever TD passes in a single season for a Navy quarterback. Dobbs, one of the most productive QB’s in program history, has graduated. Taking his place will be senior Kriss Proctor, who rushed for 304 yards and 4 touchdowns while averaging a jaw-dropping 9.5/carry. He is more of a jitterbug than Dobbs was, preferring to make defenders miss with his quickness. The offense returns seven starters in all and has a chance to be just as productive with all of the skill players they have coming back.

The Midshipmen return a talented stable of backs to run their triple-option attack. Senior FB Alexander Teich is a workhorse, finishing second on the team in rushing last season with 863 yards on 5.9/carry with 5 touchdowns. Junior SB Gee Gee Greene (492 yards, 6.8/carry, 5 TD) and senior SB Aaron Santiago (201, 7.4, 1) also return. Greene (18 catches, 286 yards) and Santiago (13 catches, 251 yards, 3 TD) also finished second-and-third on the team in receiving, respectively. The Middies do lose their top wideout in Greg Jones (33, 662, 5), but bring back junior WR Brandon Turner (4, 113, 1). Look for senior Doug Furman to take Jones’ place opposite Turner.

The offensive line has always been a team strength here at Navy dating back to the Paul Johnson years. This group was dominant last season, and they allowed only 10 sacks all year. The Middies lose first-team All-Independent LT Jeff Battipaglia (3-year starter) to graduation, but bring back eight of their top ten up front. Four starters return in all, and they are expected to start four seniors and a junior along the O-line. Senior C Brady DeMell and senior RG John Dowd are their two most dominant linemen as each earned second-team All-Independent honors a year ago.

Defense:

Navy’s defense took a step back last season. They allowed the most points (23.3) and yards (391) per game that they have given up since 2007. With only three starters returning on this side of the ball, it’s going to be hard to see them improving upon those numbers in 2011. The run defense was certainly a weakness as Navy allowed 166 rushing yards/game on 4.6/carry, and this unit also managed just 18 sacks all season. They lose two starters along the defensive line in their 3-4 scheme as second-team All-Independent DE Billy Yarborough (47 tackles, 6 sacks) and NG Chase Burge (40 tackles, 1.5 for loss) have graduated. The Middies bring back their best lineman in senior DE Jabaree Tuani (72 tackles, 15.5 for loss, 5.5 sacks), who is their leading returning tackler and a first-team All-Independent selection from 2010.

The Middies are really hurting is at linebacker, where they lose three of their top four tacklers. They are First-team All-Independent Tyler Simmons (131 tackles), along with two second-teamers in Aaron McCauley (82 tackles) and Jerry Hauberger (73 tackles). Their lone returning starter is senior ILB Max Blue (56 tackles). They do return three linebackers who have combined for 11 career starts, which is 11 more than they had coming into last season. While I foresee a drop in production from this unit, I wouldn’t be surprised to witness this LB corps overachieve.

The Navy secondary was very soft last season as opposing QB’s threw for 225 yards/game on 68.4% completions. To make matters worse, the Middies lose their top three defensive backs from 2010. First-team All-Independent ROV Wyatt Middleton (#2 tackler, 86 tackles, 5 pass break-ups) has departed, as have second-team CB Kevin Edwards (54 tackles, 5 passes defensed) and FS De’Von Richardson (51 tackles, 5 passes defensed). Senior CB Kwesi Mitchell (48 tackles, 4 passes defensed) is their lone returning starter. The other three projected starters have combined to make just five career starts.

Independents Prediction: 3rd Place – The Midshipmen have been a bunch of overachievers over the past decade. This is a team that I believe will finally have to go through a rebuilding year in 2011, especially on defense. Their offense is going to be good enough to keep them afloat, but it’s hard to even see this unit being as productive without Dobbs under center. With only three starters back on defense and the loss of their top four tacklers, I just can’t see the Middies being able to stop anyone. Navy’s road schedule is daunting with South Carolina, Rutgers, Notre Dame and SMU upcoming. They have some very tough home games as well, with Air Force and Southern Miss each primed for big seasons. Matching their nine-win total is a longshot, and hanging with Notre Dame and BYU in the Independent standings is unlikely.

Independent Team Predictions
Notre Dame Football Predictions	BYU Football Predictions
Army Football Predictions	Navy Football Predictions

College Football Predictions
ACC Football Predictions	Big 12 Football Predictions
Conference USA Football Predictions	Independents Football Predictions
PAC 12 Football Predictions	SEC Football Predictions
Big East Football Predictions	Big Ten Football Predictions
MAC Football Predictions	Mountain West Football Predictions
Sun Belt Football Predictions	WAC Football Predictions

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