NBA Finals Pinnacle Pulse

Written July 24, 2008 by Jack Jones

With three games gone in the NBA Championship series, there have been more
than a few surprises. Even casual NBA followers were surprised at how low
scoring the first two games were. Game 1 had a total of 170 points scored
(with a total of 192.5), whereas Game 2 had 183 points scored (with the
total at 188). Only Game 3 went over as 194 points were scored while the
total closed at 189.5.

While many can set a basketball total line based on “feel”, the deadliest
totals players at 5 Dimes Sportsbook combine statistical analysis with a
subjective understanding of the teams. If you want to set a baseline, you
should begin analysis by looking at five statistics: each team’s average
points scored, average points allowed by each team, and the league scoring
average.

During the regular season, Dallas scored an average of 99.1 points per
game while allowing 93.1 points per game. Miami scored 99.9 points per
game and allowed 96. An inexperienced bettor might use just those four
numbers and assume their average (96.8 per team, or 193.7 per game) will
carry forward. The problem with using straight averages is that it dilutes
the affects of high or low statistics.

If team “A” scores five points more than the league average, and this team
plays a team with an average defense, you’d expect it to score five points
more than average. If you take a straight average of these two statistics,
you would predict team “A” to only score 2.5 points better than average,
which is the wrong way to go about things.

A better way to set a baseline for a total is to compare a team’s
statistics to the league average. For example, Dallas’s average of 99.1
points per game was 1.9 higher than the league average. The Mavericks’
defense (93.1 compared to NBA average of 97.2) was 4.1 lower than the NBA
average. Miami scored 2.7 more per game (99.9 versus NBA average 97.2),
while allowing 1.2 less (96 versus NBA avg. 97.2).

You now have four “totals adjusters”: Dallas has +1.9 (offense) and -4.1
(defense); Miami has +2.7 (offense) and -1.2 (defense). Add them all up,
and your “team total adjustment” is (1.9-4.1+2.7-1.2) = -0.7. Add this to
the NBA game average (97.2 * 2), and you get a “baseline total” of 193.7
(which is close to the game 1 total of 192.5). This method is particularly
accurate when you have two influential statistics that would move the line
in the same direction - e.g. a team with a strong defense versus a weak
offense.

The baseline gives a good general measure of a match-up, but coaching
decisions can cause some significant changes. One of the biggest factors
is the pace of a game. In general, the superior team will benefit from a
faster pace. The more possessions in a game, the more likely the law of
large numbers will win out. Most games have about 85-95 possessions per
team. If you look at a box score, the number of possessions = field goal
attempts - offensive rebounds + turnovers + 0.4 * free throw attempts.
This same formula can be used to evaluate the normal “pace” of a team by
reviewing its season-long statistics.

Plugging in the regular season stats and using the pace formula, will show
that Dallas averages 90 possessions per game, while Miami averages 93
possessions. With the first two games of the series going under, you might
have examined their pace. Did a coaching strategy slow the game down?

Using the possessions formula, Game 1 offered 89 possessions each, while
Game 2 offered 90 each. This pace was fairly typical of these teams. To
understand why these games went under (especially Game 1, which went under
by 22½ points), look at another statistic: offensive efficiency.

Offensive efficiency is simply the average number of points scored by a
team per 100 possessions. In the regular season, Dallas scored 99.1 points
on 90 possessions per game for an offensive rating of 110. Miami allowed
93 points on 93 possessions, for a defensive rating of 100. One should be
cautious using season averages because a lineup change or coaching
philosophy can drastically change a team’s performance. Therefore, using
stats from the last 10 games rather than the whole season may be better.

In Game 1, Dallas scored 90 points on 90 possessions, which was about five
points less than one would guess looking at the teams’ ratings. Similarly,
Miami only scored 80 points in 90 possessions, whereas the statistics of
the two teams predict about 92.5 points. In Game 2, both teams again
scored slightly less than their offensive efficiencies would suggest.

When a game result is a far call from what’s expected, the box-score can
tell a lot. The first thing to check (both after an unusual result and
before doing analysis) are player injuries. A starter getting a lot fewer
minutes than normal in a competitive game is one indicator. Maybe the game
played at a different pace than expected. Neither of these factors were
the main cause in Game 1 - just poor shooting. If there’s no fundamental
change in team tactics, shooting will revert to the mean (as it did in
Game 2).

There is another factor to consider. Everyone has seen the frantic pace of
the last minute of a close game. In Game 6 of the Dallas-Phoenix series,
there were 10 possessions in the last 60 seconds as Phoenix pressed to
equalize. In the first two Miami-Dallas games, there were only four
possessions in the last minute of each blowout-game. It was a different
story in Game 3 where there was no more than a two point difference
between the teams at any stage during the last minute of the game. When
handicapping the total, consider the spread as well. The closer the match,
the more likely a frantic final minute or overtime is likely to occur.

Another important factor to consider when betting a total or any sport is
the juice or ‘vig’ - the bookmaker’s cut for taking a bet. All
professional bettors know what a huge impact it has on whether you have
won or lost at the end of the season. If a player wants to win $100
betting a total, he risks $110 with a traditional bookie. That extra $10
is the bookmaker’s commission for taking the bet. This is known as -110
pricing.

At 5 Dimes Sportsbook, we don’t charge the retail -110 price for placing
bets on totals. On NBA totals, we use -105 style pricing instead which
offers up to 50% better value than other sportsbooks and saves any player
$5 on every $100 wager they make.

Put another way, a player has to win close to 53% of their totals just to
break even at traditonal -110 pricing. At a low juice sports book like
5 Dimes Sportsbetting, you only need to win just 51% of your plays to
break even. Something to think about!

Filed Under NBA