NBA Handicapping: Double Digit Comebacks
Michael Alexander is a professional sports handicapper that has been beating the books with NBA betting for years. In the past, handicappers were making a decent amount of money by fading teams playing the second of two back-to-back games on the road, but if you want to be profitable with your NBA picks then you have to adjust and change with the times as soon as the bookmakers do. Here he talks about handicapping comeback winners, teams who came back from a large deficit which would require them to spend a lot of effort.
Angle #1 – Teams down by double digits at half time who came back to win the game.
This scenario is a solid situation in which a fade is in order, as the team that comes back to win only covers the spread 41.8% of the time in the following game. You should look for spots to go against these teams in their next game and could have a 58.2% winning system on your hands.
Angle #2 – Team coming back on the road when the next game is also on the road.
Here you are still dealing with teams that came back from a double digit deficit at the half to still win the game, but you are adding in the variable that the game was played on the road and the next game is also away from home. The percentage of winners when you fade these teams has jumped up to 63.5%.
Angle #3 – Team coming back was at home with their next game on the road, playing a team coming off a home game.
This time the team you want to fade is coming off a win at home after being down double digits at the half. They then have to go on the road for this game to play a team that is getting their second straight game on their home floor. Now the angle has jumped up to 66% ATS, a very profitable winning system!