2011 NBA Playoff Predictions: Heat vs Celtics
Written by Steve Janus - Google +
The playoff matchup that everyone was looking forward to in the Eastern Conference was the potential semifinal matchup between the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics. With both teams advancing out of the first round, the much anticipated series is set to get underway this Sunday with game 1 in Miami.
These two teams faced off four times in the regular season. Boston won the series 3-1, winning each of the first three games. While it’s hard to overlook how these two teams played in the regular season, Boston’s first two wins came early in the year when the Heat were still figuring out how to play with one another, and their third win came when they still had Kendrick Perkins on the roster. In the final matchup on April 10 the two teams played with the roster that we are likely to see in game 1. Miami won that matchup 100-77 at home.
While many thought the Celtics were the better team in their first round matchup against the New York Knicks, few thought Boston would sweep the series 4-0. The first two games lived up to the hype with Boston winning by just 2-points in game one and 3-points in game 2, but games 3 and 4 were complete blowouts. A big reason the Celtics were able to roll was the fact that the Knicks lost Chauncey Billups to a knee injury in game 1 and Amare Stoudemire struggled to be effective with a bad back.
The Heat won their opening series 3-1 over the Philadelphia 76ers, but it wasn’t a dominating performance like many people expected. Miami consistently struggled in the opening period against the 76ers, but their suffocating defense allowed them to climb back and win games late. If the Heat continue to get off to a slow start, I have a hard time seeing them coming out of this series on top.
Both teams could be getting a key player back to their rotation in this series. The Celtics expect Shaquille O’Neal back for game 2, while the Heat are hoping to get Udonis Haslem back for game 1. Both of these players can really help their team win games, but Boston getting O’Neal back is huge for a team that has struggled to play well since trading away Perkins.
The Celtics have done a great job defensively against LeBron James in years past, but it figures to be even harder for Boston to slow down James now that he is playing alongside Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh in the playoffs. The trio is averaging just over 66 points a game in the postseason. I believe the key for the Celtics will be keeping Miami out of the fast break and forcing them to beat them in the half-court set where they tend to take too many jump shots.
The Heat are also very strong on the defensive end, and will make life much harder on the Celtics offense than the Knicks did in the first round. The key for Miami will be controlling point guard Rajon Rondo. Boston relies so much on Rondo to get everyone involved, that if they can keep him in check they can essentially keep the entire Celtics offense from taking off.
Prediction: Miami Wins in 7 Games
I think this series is going to live up to the hype and come right down to the final game. I give the Heat the slight advantage based on the fact that they have the better offensive players in James and Wade and home court advantage.
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