2011 NBA Playoff Predictions: Lakers vs Hornets

Written by Jack Jones - Google +

The No. 2 seed Los Angeles Lakers are set to square off with the No. 7 seed New Orleans Hornets in the first round of the playoffs in the Western Conference. The two-time defending champs have looked vulnerable at times this season, but they have always had a knack for turning it on come playoff time. The Hornets did a great job this season just to make the playoffs after coming into the year with little expectations. L.A. finished with a 57-25 record while New Orleans posted a 46-36 mark.

Every playoff team from the Western Conference was able to beat the Lakers at some point this season other than the New Orleans Hornets. Los Angeles won all four meetings since the end of December, so they are fairly representative. The Lakers scored 101.8 points per contest while limiting the Hornets to 91.0 points per game, equating to a 10.8 average margin of victory.

I preview both teams below and pinpoint their strengths and weaknesses. I’ll also make my pick on which one advances into the conference semifinals to face the winner of the Mavericks/Blazers series. If you want a more complete picture of the postseason, then check out our 2011 NBA playoff predictions.

Los Angeles

The Lakers have stumbled into the playoffs, going 2-5 over their last seven games. Up until that point, it looked as if they were going to catch the Spurs for the No. 1 seed in the west. Instead, the Lakers had to win their final two games just to clinch the No. 2 seed. Los Angeles blew an 18-point fourth quarter lead to the Sacramento Kings in their season finale. Kobe Bryant had to make a 3-pointer with 4.8 seconds left in regulation just to tie it, and L.A. eventually prevailed in overtime. Otherwise, they would be the No. 3 seed facing what many believe is the most dangerous team out west in the Portland Trail Blazers.

While the Lakers only shot 29.7% as a team from 3-point range in the season series with the Hornets, they managed to shoot 51.0% over the course of four games. This just goes to show the huge advantage they have inside. The trio of Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom averaged a staggering 51.8 points and 25.6 rebounds per game against the Hornets this season. Gasol alone is scoring 22.3 points and grabbing 12.8 boards per game.

Kobe Bryant has been his usual self, putting up 25.3 points, 5.1 rebounds and 4.7 assists per contest while playing in all 82 games this year. The Lakers haven’t been getting a lot of help outside Kobe and their three big men inside, though. They’re going to need guys like Shannon Brown, Ron Artest, Steve Blake and Matt Barnes to step up if they want to three-peat. Bynum suffered a bone bruise late in the season and is listed as day-to-day. He’s expected to be available for this series if they need him.

New Orleans

The Hornets were given little chance to make the playoffs this year, but they have certainly overcome expectations. They’ve done so by playing dominant defense, ranking seventh in the league at 100.7 points per 100 possessions allowed. In their four meetings with the Lakers, though, New Orleans yielded 116.2. Gasol (31-for-44) and Bynum (25-for-39) have combined to shoot 67 percent in the four games.

After getting off to an 11-1 start this season, the Hornets have played exactly .500 ball since. They lost David West to a season-ending knee injury, and his 18.9 points and 7.6 rebounds per game cannot be replaced. Chris Paul had a solid season (15.8 PPG, 9.8 APG), but has been dealing with fluid in his surgically repaired knee. Paul has averaged just 7.3 points on 31% shooting over the final four games of the regular season as a result.

Emeka Okafor and Carl Landry have done the best job they can in trying to make up for West’s production. Both have played well against the Lakers, with Okafor averaging 12.3 points and 10.3 rebounds and Landry putting up 14.8 points and grabbing 6.8 boards. Still, they are lacking that go-to inside scorer and the Hornets are nothing more than a mediocre team right now. If they win one game in this series, they will have exceeded my expectations.

Series Prediction: Lakers win in 4 games

More Western Conference Playoff Predictions:

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