2011 NBA Playoff Predictions: Spurs vs Grizzlies

Written by Jack Jones - Google +

The No. 1 seed San Antonio Spurs will take on the No. 8 seed Memphis Grizzlies in the first round of the 2011 Western Conference playoffs. Game 1 is set to tip at 1:00 EST on Sunday, April 17th and this contest will be nationally televised on ESPN. Usually it’s hard to give an 8-seed a chance in any series, but with the season Memphis has had you can’t count them out, either.

The Spurs owned the best record in the Western Conference this season with a 61-21 record. Memphis also had a solid year at 46-36, and neither of these teams gets the love they deserve. In fact, the Grizzlies own the fourth-best record in the conference since the start of January. These teams split their season series, with each winning at home. San Antonio opened with 112-106 (OT) and 95-88 victories, but Memphis would have their revenge with 109-93 and 111-104 wins in their final two meetings.

I’m going to preview what each team has to offer below, also providing my prediction on which squad wins and in how many games. Check out our 2011 NBA playoff predictions for a more complete breakdown of the postseason.

San Antonio

Known as a stout defensive team for years, the Spurs have actually made the transition to an offensive juggernaut this season. San Antonio ranked sixth in the league in points per game (103.7) and eight in assists (22.4). Their defense took a hit, ranking 14th at 98.0 points per contest allowed. No longer around are savvy defenders like Michael Finley and Bruce Bowen, but the pieces they have added actually make the Spurs a more dangerous team.

Young players like George Hill (11.6 PPG), Gary Neal (9.8 PPG) and DeJuan Blair (8.3 PPG, 7.0 RPG) have all provided great contributions off o the bench all season. Tim Duncan is playing less minutes, and as a result his production has been down. But Manu Ginobli (17.4 PPG) and Tony Parker (17.5 PPG, 6.6 APG) are each having great seasons to pick up the slack.

Ginobli is doubtful for Game 1 with a hyper-extended elbow. It would be a huge blow for them if he were to miss more than one game, because Ginobli is the one player that can make things happen by breaking down a defense late in the shot clock. The Spurs had the second-most efficient offense in the league, scoring 109.4 points per 100 possessions during the regular season.

Memphis

The Grizzlies will be making their first trip to the playoffs since 2006. They will be trying to put an end to a 12-game losing streak in the playoffs, and their best chance to do that will be in Game 1 with Ginobli unlikely to play. Memphis suffered what figured to be a huge blow when Rudy Gay was pronounced out for the season with a shoulder injury with 25 games to go. Gay was averaging 19.8 points at the time of the injury.

The Grizzlies actually managed to go 15-10 since losing Gay as many different players have stepped their games up. Forward Zach Randolph has been one of the best players in the league all season that nobody talks about. Randolph averages a double-double (20.1 PPG, 12.2 RPG) and is a match-up nightmare. PG Mike Conley has taken his game to another level this season, putting up 13.7 PPG and 6.5 APG. Marc Gasol is a steady force inside to compliment Randolph, and he’s one of the best passing big men in the game.

Memphis has actually been a better defensive team than the Spurs, giving up only 102.4 points per 100 possessions. A big reason for that is their bench, which brings Tony Allen, Shane Battier and Darrell Arthur into the game. Allen and Battier are notorious for their ability to study game tape and figure out their opposing player’s strengths and weaknesses. One thing that’s almost a certainly in this series is that Randolph will get his, as he has scored 24, 24, 23 and 21 points in their four meetings with San Antonio this season.

Series Prediction: Spurs win in 6 games

More Western Conference Playoff Predictions:

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