NBA Point Spread to Money Line Conversion Chart
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Written by Steve Janus - Google +
The majority of people who bet on the NBA, tend to bet the favorites a lot more than they do the underdogs, especially when it comes to the general public. A lot of people see a team favored to win a game by a set number of points, and instantly think that team is a lock to win the game. They focus more on whether or not they will cover the spread, disregarding the fact that the underdog could win the game outright.
It should come as no surprise that the more a team is favored by the higher the probability becomes that they will win the game outright. Before you look at the charts (if you haven’t already)Â I want you to guess what percentage of favorites simply win the game when they are favored by 3.5-points. Once you have that number, I want you look at the table below and see if you were close. Most of the general public will completely over shoot the number.
| Favorite | Money Line | Win Percentage (Not Against Spread) | Underdog | Money Line | Win Percentage (Not Against Spread) |
| -1 | -115 | 51.10% | 1 | -104 | 48.90% |
| -1.5 | -121 | 52.30% | 1.5 | -100 | 47.70% |
| -2 | -132 | 54.30% | 2 | +109 | 45.70% |
| -2.5 | -143 | 56.30% | 2.5 | +118 | 43.70% |
| -3 | -156 | 58.20% | 3 | +129 | 41.80% |
| -3.5 | -170 | 60.10% | 3.5 | +140 | 39.90% |
| -4 | -184 | 61.90% | 4 | +150 | 38.10% |
| -4.5 | -199 | 63.60% | 4.5 | +162 | 36.40% |
| -5 | -222 | 65.80% | 5 | +179 | 34.20% |
| -5.5 | -247 | 68.00% | 5.5 | +198 | 32.00% |
| -6 | -276 | 70.10% | 6 | +219 | 29.90% |
| -6.5 | -309 | 72.10% | 6.5 | +243 | 27.90% |
| -7 | -349 | 74.20% | 7 | +270 | 25.80% |
| -7.5 | -397 | 76.30% | 7.5 | +302 | 23.70% |
| -8 | -458 | 78.40% | 8 | +341 | 21.60% |
| -8.5 | -536 | 80.50% | 8.5 | +388 | 19.50% |
| -9 | -656 | 82.80% | 9 | +456 | 17.20% |
| -9.5 | -832 | 85.20% | 9.5 | +545 | 14.80% |
| -10 | -1069 | 87.30% | 10 | +651 | 12.70% |
If you guessed close to 60%, you have a pretty good understanding of what it means for a team to be favored by only 3.5-points. Those of you who guessed a lot higher than 60% don’t feel bad. It is a very common mistake. Now I want you to guess what percentage of 3.5-point favorites actually go on to cover the spread. Check your answer with the table below.
| Favorite | Win Percentage (Against the Spread) | Underdog | Win Percentage (Against the Spread) |
| -1 | 45.40% | 1 | 52.00% |
| -1.5 | 48.10% | 1.5 | 51.90% |
| -2 | 49.50% | 2 | 46.70% |
| -2.5 | 46.90% | 2.5 | 53.10% |
| -3 | 48.50% | 3 | 47.20% |
| -3.5 | 46.50% | 3.5 | 53.50% |
| -4 | 52.80% | 4 | 45.30% |
| -4.5 | 50.40% | 4.5 | 49.60% |
| -5 | 46.00% | 5 | 49.50% |
| -5.5 | 51.30% | 5.5 | 48.70% |
| -6 | 50.60% | 6 | 45.80% |
| -6.5 | 50.80% | 6.5 | 49.20% |
| -7 | 47.20% | 7 | 48.10% |
| -7.5 | 52.30% | 7.5 | 47.70% |
| -8 | 53.10% | 8 | 43.80% |
| -8.5 | 50.80% | 8.5 | 49.20% |
| -9 | 50.20% | 9 | 46.40% |
| -9.5 | 51.40% | 9.5 | 48.60% |
| -10 | 44.70% | 10 | 52.80% |
It might not be a huge surprise that 3.5-point favorites only win 60% time, but the fact that they don’t even cover 50% of those games should be. Most of the public assumes that win a team is favored by 3.5-points they are going to win the game and easily cover the small spread. In reality the underdog not only covers the spread, but they win the game outright 40% of the time. The public can get tricked into taking a lot of small favorites because of how much they overvalue favorites. If I had asked you what percent of 10-point favorites win the game outright, your guess would have likely been a lot closer to the actual number.
I wouldn’t put a lot of stock into the exact percentages in the second chart. The idea that you need to take away from that is the favorite and underdog each win about 50% of the time.
One Response to “NBA Point Spread to Money Line Conversion Chart”
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Major Mis-print?? on the minus 9.5 -9.5……. 21.40%…….. 9.5……. 48.60%