North Carolina State at Cincinnati Line
Written by Steve Janus - Google +
This Thursday the Cincinnati Bearcats will host the North Carolina State Wolfpack in what should be an entertaining non-conference matchup. Both teams are coming off impressive wins this past Saturday. The Bearcats improved to 2-1 with a 59-14 win over Akron, while the Wolfpack took out South Alabama 35-13 to also improve to 2-1 on the season.
North Carolina State beat Cincinnati 30-19 on their home field a year ago, but our week 4 college football odds currently have the Bearcats favored by 8-points over the Wolfpack.
North Carolina State:
There are a lot of question marks surrounding the Wolfpack after the first three games of the season. In their lone loss they were upset on the road by Wake Forest 27-34. The same team they crushed 38-3 at home the year before. Their two wins have came against non-division I opponents at home, and they didn’t exactly dominate either of those games like you would expect.
After a rough first game, new starting quarterback Mike Glennon has found his groove over the last two games. Glennon went just 18 of 31 for 156 yards and a touchdown in the opener against Liberty, but has thrown for 589 yards with seven touchdowns to just one interception over the last two games.
The only problem is the Wolfpack have not been able to balance out their attack with a running game. They rank 83rd in the country with just 122 rushing yards a game. A lot of that has to do with the injury to starting running back Mustafa Greene, who isn’t expected to play his first game until early October.
Six different players have caught a touchdown pass this season, but the two players that opposing defenses have to key on are junior T.J. Graham and senior Tobias Palmer. Graham leads the team with 252 yards on 12 catches while Palmer has caught 13 passes for 170 yards. No other receiver has more than 70 yards receiving on the season.
Defensively the Wolfpack have really been hit hard by injuries, especially up front on the defensive line. They have lost their two best defensive lineman in senior defensive tackle J.R. Sweezy (team captain) and senior defensive end Jeff Rieskamp. They are also without starting weak-side linebacker Terrell Manning, who had 76 tackles and five sacks a year ago. Not exactly what you want to have going up against a Cincinnati offense that ranks fourth in the country at 51.3 ppg.
Cincinnati:
The Bearcats are a tough team to get a good feel for at this point in the season. They have two blowout wins over Austin Peay and Akron, but also lost at Tennessee 23-45. While some might look at that Tennessee loss and think this team isn’t all that good, but I think the Volunteers are a lot better team than people are giving them credit for.
Offensively the Bearcats are led by senior quarterback Zach Collaros and senior running back Isaiah Pead. Collaros has completed 62.3% of his passes for 521 yards with seven touchdowns and no interceptions. Pead comes in with 257 yards and four touchdowns on just 27 carries (9.5 avg.). The running game has really been a strength for Cincinnati to start the season, as they come in averaging 239.0 yards per game. When you consider the losses the Wolfpack have had to their front seven, you have to think they are going to have a lot of success running the ball this Thursday.
The concern for the Bearcats comes on the defensive side of the football. They are giving up an average of 385.6 yards per game. Their biggest weakness is against the pass. They are allowing 258.3 ypg and that really fits right into what the Wolfpack like to do offensively. Tennessee quarterback Tyler Bray completed 34 of 41 passes for 405 yards and four touchdowns.
Betting Trends:
North Carolina State is 27-10-1 ATS in their last 38 games as a road underdog.
Cincinnati is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Be sure to stop back and check out what Steve Janus has to offer in week 4 of college football.
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