NC State at North Carolina

Written by Steve Janus

This Saturday the North Carolina State Wolfpack will look to keep their ACC Atlantic title hopes alive when they go on the road to take on in-state rival North Carolina in ACC play. The Wolfpack bounced back from a tough loss at Clemson with an impressive 38-3 win over Wake Forest, while the Tar Heels ended a two game winning streak, falling 26-10 to Virginia Tech. The Wolfpack have won three straight in the series, including a 28-27 win last season. If you are interested in betting on the game this weekend, the current college football odds have the Tar Heels favored by 2.5 points over the Wolfpack at home.

North Carolina State (7-3, 4-2 ACC): The Wolfpack got another big time performance from junior quarterback Russell Wilson, who completed 24 of 35 passes for 300 yards and two touchdowns, and also scored twice on the ground. It was a good thing Wilson came to play, as the Wolfpack got just 42 yards on the ground from their running backs.

With no running game, Wilson has to make plays in the passing game for the Wolfpack to be successful on offense. The Tar Heels have struggled at times against the pass, including last week, when they allowed Tyrod Taylor throw for 249 yards and two scores. The key for Wilson and the offense will be taking care of the football, as they can’t afford to give North Carolina any easy chances to score.

North Carolina (6-4, 3-3 ACC): The Tar Heels really played sloppy last week against Virginia Tech, as they turned the ball over six times, including four interceptions from quarterback Tyler Yates, who only threw for 197 yards after setting a school-record with 439 yards passing against Florida State.

The Tar Heels opened the game scoring 10 points on their first three drives, and took a 10-9 lead into the second half, but Virginia Tech poured on 17 points in the third quarter, and the Tar Heels offense managed just 86 yards of offense in the second half.

The Tar Heels have also struggled to run the ball this season, averaging just 123.5 yards a game, but could have found an answer to the problem in Anthony Elzy, who ran for 82 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries, and added seven catches for 102 yards. If Elzy can come anywhere close to that performance this week, the Tar Heels offense could make some noise, but they have to fix the turnover problem if they want any shot to win.

A lot of credit needs to be given to the Hokies defense for the Tar Heels misfortunes last week, but North Carolina has to take better care of the football. The Wolfpack have played well on defense all season, as they come in ranked 26th in the country, allowing just 327 yards of total offense a game.

Looking at the Odds: I just don’t think the Tar Heels have enough offense to keep up with the Wolfpack in this one. No question both teams will play hard with state bragging rights up for grabs, but NC State is simply the better team and should find a way to win this game. The Wolfpack are 8-2 ATS this season, and are 12-2 ATS in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. My final score prediction is North Carolina State 27, North Carolina 23.

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