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NCAA Basketball Picks 1/30/08

Written January 30, 2008 by Jack Jones

We take a split on yesterday’s games, but we have a big card for you on Wednesday with some marquee matchups. One in the Missouri Valley where Creighton heads to Des Moines to take on Drake, and in the Big 12 there is Texas/Texas A&M and Kansas State/Kansas so let’s cash in and have a big day.

St. Joe’s -6.5

Don’t worry about laying the points on the road with this St. Joe’s team. They are 8-3 away from home this year with almost a double digit margin of victory. George Washington is only 5-10 and they are having problems scoring points. They have lost four straight games and aren’t catching enough points in this one to get the cover. George Washington is just 4-13 ATS the last two seasons when lined up as the underdog.

UNLV -3.5

Here is one key stat about how these two teams play in comparison to their opponents: UNLV is 24-10 ATS when playing a team with a winning record the last two seasons while TCU is 31-54 ATS when playing at home against an above .500 team over the past ten seasons. UNLV has been playing great, winning eight of their last nine games, and they have done it by playing tough defense. I see TCU having trouble scoring enough points in this one to keep it close.

Creighton +4

Everyone is going to be all over Drake tonight since the team is ranked 16th in the nation and laying this small number in front of their home crowd, but we are backing the Bluejays. This is a team that has historically played well in the second half of the season, going 14-4 ATS against teams with a winning record in the second half of the past three seasons. They are also 9-2 ATS when revenging a straight up loss to an opponent (the Bulldogs went into Omaha and beat Creighton 60-68 a little more than a week ago). Creighton needs this win tonight and we see them picking off their ranked foes.

Memphis -9.5

There is no question that Memphis has played great all year and has a great chance at going undefeated. Tonight they are playing a decent opponent in Houston, but the Tigers are 8-2 ATS the last two years against teams who average more than 4 ppg as a margin of victory. This team is scoring more than 80 ppg while holding opponents under 60. Houston may be able to score with the Tigers, but they can’t play the same kind of defense and that is why the Tigers are going to come away with a double digit win.

Kansas -7

Kansas has put a beat down on good teams this year, going 8-2 ATS against teams with a winning record. They have also been big money makers for their backers in Big 12 play, going 28-16 ATS against their conference opponents. This team is scoring more than 83 ppg while holding opponents to 58.5 ppg and they are playing a talented offensive team tonight in Kansas State, but the Wildcats can’t play defense as well as the Jayhawks. Even with Kansas State playing extremely well right now, Kansas is 18-8 ATS in this series and we see them putting Michael Beasley in his place tonight.

Air Force +4.5

BYU hasn’t played good teams very well, as they are just 5-16 ATS against teams who outscore their opponents by four or more points a game the last three seasons. BYU may be 15-5 but they are 4-5 on the road. Air Force stands at 9-1 on their home floor so we just can’t pass up this chance to take the points, especially when they are 7-2 ATS on their home floor against the Cougars the last ten years.

Texas +3.5

Texas is 12-4 ATS against conference rivals the past two seasons, so we are expecting them to rise to the occasion here tonight against the Aggies. This should be a good game between two teams that can score and play defense, but don’t worry too much about the Longhorns going on the road as they are 5-2 away from their home faithful this year. A&M is coming off a close win and three tough losses, and we just don’t think they are the team that started off the season scorching hot. Texas is the better team so take them to win this game.

Overall Record 30-36

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