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NCAA Tournament Bracket Tips

Ok, so even if it’s not likely that you can beat the odds on picking the perfect bracket, it’s not likely anyone else will be able to do so either.  If you follow basic math and recent history then you should have a great shot at taking home your office pool and pocketing some extra cash this March.  Let’s take a look at a few tips on filling out NCAA tournament brackets.

Don’t Take 16 or 15 seeds

This seems pretty basic.  If a team is an underdog that means they are not likely to win in the first place, but without a few sleepers you aren’t going to set yourself apart from the pack.  The secret here is to choose wisely.  Are you taking a 16 seed over a 1?  Odds are it’s going to end up in disappointment since a top seeds have never lost to a 16.   I would stay away from 15 seeds as well, with only four ever having beat a No. 2.

Choose Risky Upsets Wisely

Taking 13 and 14 seeds is risky as well.  The 14 seeds with the best chance of winning are teams scoring more than 77 ppg as they cash in 33% of the time over the 3′s. For 13 seeds look for teams that dominate inside, getting more than 53% of their points from forwards and centers.  These teams are more than five times likely to upset their foes than guard oriented teams this low.  Everyone will be zoning in on 12 seeds over 5s, but which ones?  Again, go for the teams that score inside and have experience.

Some Cinderellas Keep Dancing

When you head to round two, keep taking the 1 seeds as they tend to make the Sweet 16 at a high rate.  If you picked an upset with a team seeded 12, 11, or 10, take them to make the Sweet 16 as well.  If a higher seed than that wins in round one, they normally get beat in round two.

Ride the No. 1 Seeds

The committee thought these teams were the best in the nation, so why would you doubt them? You have to take at least three No. 1 seeds to the Elite 8 and two to the Final Four.

How Far to Take Your Cinderella

Do not take seeds lower than 11 to the Elite 8 as only one has ever gone this far.  When it comes to the Elite 8 get rid of any team left lower than an 8 seed as only two Final Four teams have been seeded in the bottom half.  No team lower than a six seed has made the title game in 24 years and for 21 straight years the title winner has been a No. 4 seed or higher.