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NCAA Tournament Picks Against the Spread

UNC-Asheville (#16) v Syracuse (#1) – The loss of Fab Melo will likely keep the Orange from winning the NCAA Tournament, but it won’t stop them from rolling over UNC-Asheville. Lay the 15-points on Syracuse.

Southern Miss (#9) v Kansas State (#8) – Southern Miss comes in having lost seven straight against the spread. That has Kansas State overvalued in what is a pretty even matchup. Take the 5-points and roll the Golden Eagles.

Loyola-MD (#15) v Ohio State (#2) – It may seem like a lot of points to lay on the Buckeyes, but they should dominate this game from start to finish. Loyola-Maryland’s 24-point loss at Kentucky has me siding with Ohio State to cover the large 17.5-why

West Virginia (#10) v Gonzaga (#7) – West Virginia comes in having lost eight of their last 12 overall. I can’t seem them simply turning it on against a very talented Gonzaga club. Even better for the Bulldogs, they just have to win the game to avoid not covering. Lay the 1-point while you still can.

Connecticut (#9) v Iowa State (#8) – Iowa State is one of the most underrated teams in the country. They deserved better than a No. 8 seed and they will show it with a convincing win over the Huskies. Bet Iowa State +1.5!

Colorado St (#11) v Murray St (#6) – I understand Murray State had an easy non-conference schedule and there isn’t a lot of talent in the Ohio Valley, but if you had the opportunity to watch this team play you would understand they are for real. I see no reason why they don’t cover this small 4.5-point spread against Colorado St.

Harvard (#12) v Vanderbilt (#5) -Vanderbilt is getting a ton of love after their huge win over Kentucky in the SEC Tournament title game, but that doesn’t mean they are a strong bet against Harvard. I think this line is inflated and I’ll gladly take Harvard and the 5.5-points.

Montana (#13) v Wisconsin (#4) – The Badgers are the better team, but they don’t play a style of basketball that results in a lot of blowouts. Montana will keep this game close and barely cover the 9-point spread.

VCU (#12) V Wichita State (#5) – VCU’s magical run to the final four and impressive finish to the regular season won’t be enough for them to keep this game close. Take Wichita State -6.5.

New Mexico St (#13) v Indiana (#4) – Indiana has some great wins this season, but almost everyone of them came on their home court. I look for the Hoosiers to struggle to even win their opening round game. Take New Mexico St +6.

Long Beach St (#12) v New Mexico (#5) – This is where I look for one of the class 12 vs 5 upsets on Thursday. Long Beach St played a brutal non-conference schedule and are more than ready to knock off New Mexico. Take the 4-points.

Davidson (#13) v Louisville (#4) – Louisville is a team that could make a deep run in the tournament. I like them to win this game, but I don’t think they will cover the 7.5-point spread. If you don’t know much about Davidson, a 80-74 win over Kansas should be enough to convince you to jump on the points.

Duke (#2) v #Lehigh (#15) – Rarely will you find the Blue Devils as this small of a favorite in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.  Somehow, Duke is under the radar.  Lay the 12 points.

Notre Dame (#7) v Xavier (#10) – The Fighting Irish have been a much more consistent team than Xavier down the stretch.  The Musketeers are lucky to have made the big dance.   Take Notre Dame -2.

Creighton (#8) v Alabama (#9) – This is a classic match-up of offense versus defense.  I’ll side with the better defensive team in Alabama, which ranks 7th in the country in points allowed per game (58.1).  Bet Alabama -1.5.

Michigan State (#1) v Long Island (#16) – Sparty has been rolling since the beginning of the season.  Michigan State wins this one by 20-plus over a Long Island team that has suffered all eight of its losses away from home.  Roll with MSU -20.

Memphis (#8) v Saint Louis (#9) – Under head coach Rick Majerus, the Billikins have been underrated all season.  They are a great defensive team that will have an answer for Memphis leading scorer Will Barton, who does everything for that team.  Saint Louis ranks 8th in the country in scoring defense (57.5).  Take the Billikins +3.5.

Georgetown (#3) v Belmont (#14) – Everyone, I mean everyone is jumping on the underdog in this one.  In the words of Lee Corso, not so fast my friends.  Georgetown is the play at -3.5

San Diego State (#6) v NC State (#11) – What? The 11 seed is favored over the 6 seed?  It’s true folks, and for good reason.  NC State lost to North Carolina by just 2 points in the ACC semifinals, and they are a dangerous double-digit seed in this tournament.  Take NC State -2.

Florida State (#3) v St. Bonaventure (#14) – While  it was a great run by the Bonnies to win the Atlantic 10 Tournament, they’ll be no match for red hot Florida State.  The Seminoles beat Duke and North Carolina to be crowned ACC champs.  They’ll have no problem covering 6.5 against the Bonnies.

Cincinnati (#6) v Texas (#11) – The Bearcats made it to the Big East final while knocking off Syracuse in the process.  This team has three stud guards and one of the best centers in the tournament in Yancy Gates.  They’ll be too much for this young Texas squad.  Bet Cincinnati -2

Michigan (#4) v Ohio (#13) – The Wolverines have been a bit overrated all season.  I like the underdog Bobcats to give them all they can handle and more.  Michigan relies way too much on the 3-pointer, and if they go cold, don’t be surprised to see Ohio pull off the upset.  Roll with the Bobcats +6

Missouri (#2) v Norfolk State (#15) – Missouri is an attacking team that will not let up on the gas.  That’s why I believe they cover this 21.5-point spread Friday.

Florida (#7) v Virginia (#10) – The Gators are strong inside and out, which makes them a very tough team to tame.  Virginia has a stud big man in Mike Scott, but they are overmatched at the guard positions.  This is a great match-up for the Gators.  Take Florida -3.

Kansas (#2) v Detroit (#15) – I’ve seen Detroit play a few times, which has me believing they are going to give the Jayhawks all they can handle.  They have a ton of athleticism and a stud sophomore point guard who is the coach’s son.  Take the 14 points on Detroit.

Saint Mary’s (#7) v Purdue (#10) – The Gaels have somehow gone under the radar all season despite having just five losses.  They should have been given better than a No. 7 seed.  I like the story of Robbie Hummel and Purdue, but unfortunately their season comes to an end here.  Bet St. Mary’s -1.5.