2011 Nebraska Football Predictions
Written by Patrick Webb
Nebraska enters its first season confident that they can challenge for the league’s BCS bid. Bo Pelini’s squad should be solid defensively, but have to replace six key pieces from the offense including three offensive linemen. Defensively Nebraska loses only six players from the defense, but the Huskers played a lot of different players and return their top seven on the defensive line, experience at linebacker and four defensive backs. They may have to play more 4-3 in the transition to the Big Ten, but they have a lot of talented bodies and will face less explosive offenses this season. The biggest loss could be kicker/punter Alex Henery, who was outstanding in both phases on special teams.
The Cornhuskers had some turnover in the coaching department, promoting running backs coach Tim Beck to offensive coordinator, plus adding new faces at the linebacker and defensive back coaching spots. Nebraska drew a tough schedule that could play havoc if they suffer injuries on offense. They face tough defenses with Wisconsin and Penn State on the road. The Huskers will face just one Big Ten team that didn’t play in a bowl last season.
Offensively the Huskers return Taylor Martinez, who will need to maintain his health and poise, as well as improve his accuracy throwing the ball. Martinez had a great start to the season, leading the Huskers to 37.8 points per game before injuring an ankle versus Missouri. Nebraska still put up a respectable 31 points against Iowa State without Martinez and 45 points against Colorado, but struggled in their other three games, scoring just 20 against a bad Kansas team, 6 on the road at Texas A&M, and 20 against Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship game. Martinez also needs to stay healthy because the experienced back up QB Cody Green chose to transfer after the spring, leaving red-shirt frosh Brion Carnes as the second-string signal-caller.
Rex Burkhead returns at running back and should get a bigger share of the carries with Roy Helu (1,245 yards, 6.6 yards per carry, 11 TDs) gone to the NFL. Burkhead had a solid year and may be better suited against the more physical Big Ten defenses Nebraska will be facing. Hyped incoming tailback Aaron Green will likely see a lot of time backing up Burkhead. The Huskers return several experienced fullbacks as well, including Tyler Legate, who is an excellent blocker and a weapon as a receiver.
Nebraska loses two key pass catchers in WR Niles Paul and WR/TE Mike McNeill, but returns the steady Brandon Kinnie and TEs Kyler Reed and Ben Cotton. True freshman Jamal Turner was in for the spring and while his future may be at QB he will likely see a lot of time at WR this season. He is joined by Kenny Bell, Quincy Enunwa, and Tim Marlowe, who are hoping to carve out playing time at receiver this season.
The Huskers will be looking to replace three starters up front, but get Marcel Jones back from injury and return starters C Mike Caputo and Jeremiah Sirles, who started all 14 games last season as a red shirt freshman. This has the potential to be a huge line as all of the starters listed on the depth chart are at least 320 lbs with the exception of Caputo at center. Nebraska will be inexperienced at the two guard spots no matter who wins the job. The Huskers ran for 5.5 yards per carry last season, but will face a tougher set of defenses this season and will need to protect Martinez better as they surrendered 29 sacks last season.
Defensively Nebraska figures to make its mark in the Big Ten as they return a lot of talent at every level, including several players with NFL futures. DT Jared Crick returns off of a strong junior campaign where he totaled 9.5 sacks and 7.5 tackles for loss. He is joined by returning starters DT Baker Steinkuhler and DE Cameron Meredith. The only loss on this unit was DE Pierre Allen, who totaled 11 TFLs (including sacks) and 12 QB hurries. This is a deep unit that could have as many as six juniors and seniors this season.
Lavonte David is coming off a school record 152 tackles in 2010 and will face more traditional offenses in the Big Ten. David is solid in pass coverage and can stay on the field against any style of offense. He is joined by experienced linebackers Will Compton and Sean Fisher. Nebraska has some depth at this position and the linebackers will likely play more than they have over the last couple of seasons.
The Huskers lose three contributors that combined for 207 tackles and 8 interceptions last season in DeJon Golmes, Prince Amukamara and hybrid safety Eric Hagg. However they do return CB Alfonzo Dennard plus Safeties Austin Cassidy and Courtney Osbourne from last season’s deep defensive backfield. CB Ciante Evans is expected to replace Amukamara, though he could be pushed by several solid recruits in the last couple of classes. This unit allowed only 48.7% of passes completed last season and could improve both their sack and pass defense numbers in the new conference. Nebraska would have been one the top defenses last season in the Big Ten against arguably tougher offensive competition in the Big 12.
They did, however, struggle at times against the run giving up giving up 150 yards or more in seven games, including allowing over 200 yards in three contests. With their returning players up front and the expected shift from a nickel to a 4-3 front they should be able to defend the run better in the new conference.
Nebraska loses one of their best specialists in many seasons in P/K Alex Henery, who was amazing in both roles. Brett Maher was competing for both positions, but may concentrate on punting and cede the kicking job to incoming freshman Mauro Bondi. It is doubtful that the two players can replace the amazing production of Henery. They also lose top returner Niles Paul, but the Huskers have some talented receivers who can likely double in each return role.
Schedule Analysis: The Huskers have a fairly soft non-conference schedule as they face only one BCS foe (Washington) and play their first three games in Lincoln, followed by a trip to Wyoming (3-9 last season). The schedule toughens up considerably in week 1 of the Big Ten season as they travel to Wisconsin for a night game (Wisconsin 26-3 in last 29 home night games), and then return home to face Ohio State before a bye. They then travel to Minnesota before facing divisional foes Michigan State and Northwestern at home. After that the Huskers have back-to-back road games against Penn State and Michigan before closing the season against Iowa in Lincoln. Nebraska drew the three toughest opponents out of the Leaders Division and two of those games are on the road. Penn State and Minnesota will have byes before facing the Huskers and Iowa and Michigan have relatively easy foes in the week before they face Nebraska.
Season Record Prediction: 10-2 Overall (6-2 Big Ten – 2nd in Legends Division)
Other Resources:
- Locksmith Sports – 2nd in Big Ten
- Bettors World – sees the Huskers winning between 7 & 9 games this season.
- Kyle Hunter - sees Nebraska at 11-3 but not a serious threat for a national title.
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