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Football Predictions: Nebraska at Missouri

Written October 8, 2009 by Hector Garza

Nebraska opens up conference play this Thursday night against undefeated Missouri in what is sure to be an indicator for the Big 12 North championship. The Cornhuskers could easily be 4-0, but lost a heartbreaker 3 weeks ago when now #5 Virginia Tech scored in the last 21 seconds of the game. Last year, Missouri handed the Big Red a 52-17 defeat in Memorial Stadium with star QB Chase Daniels. This year, the teams are much more evenly matched, with Nebraska as the 3 ½ point favorite with a total set at 52 ½ according to the most recent college football lines.

The Huskers have been scoring points at will, averaging over 39 ppg and 440 ypg. The only true challenge they faced this year was VA Tech, where they failed to get into the end zone, a trend that can’t be repeated against a tough Tiger squad. QB Zac Lee has thrown 7 td’s and 3 interceptions, completing just under 65% of his passes. Perhaps most impressive is the running game, where the Big Red are averaging 190 ypg. Roy Helu leads the attack with 116 yards per contest on the ground.

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Nebraska, under Bo Pelini’s guidance, has played very well defensively, and is currently ranked #3 nationally in scoring giving up 7 ppg. Senior LB Phillip Dillard has started the last two games and added to the intensity and physicality of the run stopping unit. Ndamukong Suh anchors the line, and will be looking to pressure the Tigers QB Blaine Gabbert. The defense will be tested as the Missouri offense is 15th nationally in scoring, putting up 36.8 ppg.

Missouri puts up the points, but an important note is that they’ve done so against opponents that have a combined 6-12 record. QB Blaine Gabbert has been superb, throwing for 290+ ypg with 11 td’s and NO interceptions. Senior WR Danario Alexander has had a stellar year, catching 29 balls for 404 yards 4 td’s. Another deep threat has been WR Jared Perry, who’s had 25 catches for 381 yards and 5 td’s. No doubt the Huskers secondary will have plenty of challenges with this daring duo. While the passing game is a threat, one weakness has been the rushing attack, where the Tigers are averaging 3.8 ypc.

DE Aldon Smith has been a pleasant surprise. The redshirt freshman has 20 tackles, 5 for a loss, 3 sacks and 2 pass deflections. FS Jasper Simmons has commanded respect with his hard hits and is 3rd on the team in tackles. The Tigers have shown their susceptibility to the run, giving up 218 yards to Nevada two weeks ago. The defensive line will need a better effort when the Huskers and their strong running game come into town.

The Tigers are playing at home and boast an air attack that’s one of the best in the nation, but the defense has been susceptible. The Huskers defense has proven its mettle and its offense has also been productive. Both teams are coming off of bye weeks and will be rested and ready to roll this Thursday night at 9:00 p.m. EDT. The Big Red will be able to rely on their strong running game to control the clock and the game. They will prove they’re ready to contend for the Big 12 championship with a breakout win against Mizzou.

Final Score Prediction: Nebraska 37, Missouri 21

Garza’s Pick: Nebraska Cornhuskers -3.5 & Over 52.5

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