Nevada at Boise State Spread

Written by Jack Jones

The Boise State Broncos had their hopes of playing for a BCS championship crushed last season with a 34-31 loss to the Nevada Wolf Pack on November 26th. They led Nevada 24-7 at halftime, and it appeared that they would at least be in the discussion for a national title shot. But the Wolf Pack came storming back, and Kyle Brotzman missed a 26-yard field goal at the end of regulation that would have won it for the Broncos. He also missed a 29-yard attempt in overtime, sealing their fate. The fourth-ranked Broncos will get a shot at revenge Saturday when they host Nevada at 2:30 EST in a game that will be nationally televised on Versus.

Taking a look at the Week 5 college football spreads, I find a line of Boise State -27 with a total set of 62.5 points.

Boise State

The Broncos are off to a fast start to their 2011 campaign, making easy work of their first three opponents. Boise State (3-0, 0-0 MWC) opened their season with a huge 35-21 road victory at then-No. 19 Georgia. They went on the road to Toledo two weeks later after a bye, downing the Rockets 40-15. In their home opener last week, the Broncos topped Tulsa 41-21 while outgaining the Golden Hurricane 458-291 and forcing four turnovers. They jumped out to a 27-0 lead by halftime and coasted in the second half for the victory

Heisman Trophy candidate Kellen Moore has been nothing short of spectacular, completing 79.0 percent of his passes for 995 yards and 12 touchdowns to two interceptions. Doug Martin has 202 rushing yards and two touchdowns, but he’s been limited to just 3.2 yards/rush. D.J. Harper has chipped in 122 yards and a touchdown on the ground, but he’s averaging a pedestrian 4.1/carry as well. Moore lost his top two receivers from last season in Austin Pettis and Titus Young. Filling their shoes have been Mitch Burroughs (16 receptions, 182 yards, one TD), Matt Miller (15, 179, one TD), and Tyler Shoemaker (11, 177, six TD). Martin also has 10 catches for 154 yards and a score.

Boise State is 14th in the country in total offense (486.0 yards/game) and they are 20th in scoring offense (38.7 points/game) as well. The defense has taken a step back from last season, but they are still ranked 42nd in total defense (337.7 yards/game) and 30th in scoring defense (19.0 points/game). Plus, Georgia, Toledo and Tulsa all feature potent offenses, so you have to factor that in as well.

Nevada

The Wolf Pack have been dealt a brutal schedule through the first four weeks. They opened with then-No. 13 Oregon, falling 69-20 on the road. They squeaked by San Jose State on the road the next week, winning 17-14. Last Saturday they hit the road again for a showdown with Texas Tech, falling by a final of 34-35. Nevada (1-2, 1-0 WAC) actually outgained the Red Raiders 562-441, but they allowed a touchdown with just 36 seconds remaining to come up just short.

Nevada had to replace a lot of talent this offseason. Tyler Lantrip has struggled thus far at quarterback, completing just 58.1 percent of his passes for 522 yards and two touchdowns to four interceptions. He has also rushed for 122 yards on 31 carries for the Wolf Pack. Leading the way on the ground has been Mike Ball, who has rushed for 362 yards and two touchdowns. Cody Fajardo has been a big play waiting to happen, rushing 16 times for 197 yards (12.3/carry) and three scores. Rashard Matthews leads all receivers with 20 receptions for 284 yards and a touchdown.

Despite so many key losses offensively, Nevada is still 15th in total offense (483.6 yards/game). They have had no problem moving the ball, but putting up points has been another story. The Wolf Pack rank 90th in scoring offense (23.7 points/game). They are averaging 285.3 yards/games on the ground, good for 7th in the land. Nevada has been torched on defense, sitting 101st in the country in total defense (444.7 yards/game) and 117th in scoring defense (39.3 points/game).

Betting Trends

The Wolf Pack are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss.

The Broncos are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games overall, 24-11 ATS in their last 36 non-conference games, and 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games following a S.U. win. They are, however, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Boise State leads the all-time series 24-13 and they are 15-2 in 17 meetings at Bronco Stadium, winning six straight there. The Broncos are 9-1 SU & 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings overall.

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