New England Patriots Odds to Win the Super Bowl

Written by Steve Janus

Thanks to a Ravens missed field goal in the final seconds of the AFC Championship Game, the New England Patriots are headed back to the Super Bowl. Their opponent is non other than the New York Giants, which just so happens to be the last team the Patriots faced in the Super Bowl (2007). New England came into that game as a heavy 12-point favorite and were supporting a perfect 18-0 record, but it was the Giants who would win the game. Bill Belichick and Tom Brady were a perfect 3-0 in the Super Bowl prior to that loss, and I don’t think there is any team they would rather face than the Giants.

The Patriots finished up the regular season with an AFC-best 13-3 regular season record. While New England came into the season as the favorites to win the AFC, there was a point in the season when some experts were questioning this team. In week 9 the Patriots lost 20-24 at home to the Giants, just one week after a 17-25 loss at Pittsburgh. The Patriots were just 5-3 overall at that point, and the skeptics were all over the poor play of their defense. Belichick and Brady would finish up the regular season with eight straight wins, followed by a 45-10 win over the Broncos in the Divisional round and a 23-20 win over the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game.

The big question is whether or not the Patriots will be able to get their revenge on the Giants. Oddsmakers seem to think so. Looking at the Super Bowl odds, New England is currently favored by 3-points over the Giants. A lot of people will look at the Giants win over the Patriots in Foxboro and instantly jump on New York. However, New England would have won that game by a field goal if it wasn’t for the Giants scoring a touchdown with just 15 seconds left. Here are few things that are working in the Patriots favor.

The Giants used what they call their “Bison” package in the first game to rattle Brady and the Patriots offense in the first game. Basically they replaced one of their linebackers with veteran safety Deon Grant. It allowed them to match up better with the Patriots two tight end sets. You can bet Brady has spent plenty of time reviewing that game. If anyone is going to find a whole in a defense it’s Brady. If it means run the ball more to take advantage of the Giants having an extra defensive back, they will do just that. I think anytime you give New England this much time with this much motivation it has to work in their favor.

While the Patriots are the team that’s favored to win the game, the betting public has jumped on the New York bandwagon. It’s a complete reversal of the last time these two teams met in the Super Bowl. Going into that game almost everyone was on the Patriots and all the Giants heard for two weeks was how they had absolutely no shot of even keeping the game close.

In the first meeting the Patriots turned the ball over four times, yet still had a lead with less than 2 minutes to go in the fourth quarter. Tom Brady threw two interceptions in that game and fumbled on another series. Those turnovers led to 10 easy points for the Giants. I have a hard time seeing Brady making those kind of mistakes in the Super Bowl.

I think there is a very good chance New England wins this game, which more than likely will lead to them covering the spread. However, the Giants are riding a wave of momentum, very similar to what the Packers rode to their Super Bowl win last season. If you are looking for some expert advise on who take, get on board with NFL handicapper Steve Janus!

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