2011 New Mexico Football Predictions

Written by Steve Janus

It has not been a good first two years for New Mexico head coach Mike Locksley, who led the Lobos to second consecutive 1-11 finish. The Lobos only win on the season came at home against Wyoming. Looking ahead to the 2011 season, Locksley should have his best team by far since taking over the program in 2009. New Mexico returns 15 starters from 2010 and add in four very highly regarded transfers from big conference teams. To give you a better idea of what the Lobos will look like this season, here is a quick breakdown of both sides of the ball, plus my prediction on where they will finish in the Mountain West Conference.

Offense:

The Lobos averaged just 15.8 ppg game in 2010, and a big reason for that is the poor play they got from the quarterback position. The Lobos had a rotating door at starter between B.R. Holbrook, Stump Godfrey and Tarean Austin. Godfrey led the Lobos to their only win against the Cowboys, and was the only quarterback to have more touchdowns than interceptions. It’s hard telling who will win the job this fall, but either way it can’t get much worse than it was in 2010.

While the Lobos return their top two receiving threats in junior wide out Ty Kirk and junior tight end Lucas Reed, all the hype heading into the fall is around Ohio State transfer Lamaar Thomas and West Virginia transfer Deon Long. Both are expected to start, and should give New Mexico one of their top receiving units in years.

New Mexico didn’t get a whole lot of production out of the running game in 2010. Junior Kasey Carter and James Wright combined for just 677 yards and four touchdowns. Both return for the 2011 season, and while they weren’t great last year, they really can’t get much worse.

What concerns me about this side of the ball is the lack of experience and talent the Lobos have on the offensive line. The only starters back are sophomore right tackle Darryl Johnson and sophomore center Dillon Farrell. What they get out of the other three starting spots will go a long way in how much the offense improves from last season.

Defense:

As bad as the offense was in 2010, the defense was even worse. The Lobos gave up 44.3 ppg and allowed over 50 points in four different games. They do bring back nine starters on this side of the ball, so some improvement should be made. Up front on the defensive line the Lobos return senior defensive end Jaymar Latchison and one of New Mexico;s biggest recruits in school history in sophomore defensive tackle Calvin Smith. The Lobos will add Illinois transfer Reggie Ellis at the other tackle spot, while Joe Harris and Johnathan Rainey fight for the other starting defensive end spot.

At linebacker New Mexico brings back Carmen Messina, Joe Stoner and DeShon Marman, but Stoner figures to lose his job to Maryland transfer Javarie Johnson. With all the experience back and the addition of Stoner, this is by far the best unit at linebacker the Lobos have had under Locksley.

In the secondary the Lobos should benefit from returning all four starters from last year, but this unit wasn’t exactly great in 2010. The Lobos allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 60.4% of their passes for an average of 219 yards a game, and likely would have thrown for more if New Mexico wasn’t so bad against the run.

2011 Prediction: 7th MWC - I don’t think there is any doubt that the Lobos won’t be as bad as they were last year, but at the same time I don’t think they are going to turn things completely around. I think they should have no trouble beating UNLV at home, but also surprise Wyoming on the road to finish 6th in the MWC.

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