New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts Odds

Written by Steve Janus

This Saturday the Indianapolis Colts will play host to the New York Jets in a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship game, where the Colts knocked the Jets off their remarkable run with a 30-17 win, despite the fact that the Jets jumped out to an 11-point lead. Indianapolis didn’t secure a playoff spot until the final week of the regular season, but still managed to get the No. 3 seed by winning the AFC South with a 10-6 record. The Jets finished the year 11-5, but are the No.6 seed. Kick-off is set for 8:00 ET and will be televised nationally on NBC. Our NFL odds have the Colts favored by 2.5-points over the Jets at home.

New York (11-5): Playing on the road won’t matter to the Jets, as they showed last year that they can win regardless of where they play. The problem for New York is quarterback Peyton Manning, who has knocked Rex Ryan out of the playoffs twice in his career already, once when he was the defensive coordinator with the Ravens.

The Jets had some success running the ball against the Colts last year, and you have to believe New York is going to try and pound the football with Shonn Greene and burn the edges with LaDainian Tomlinson.Getting the running game will be crucial for the Jets offense, as it will not only wear down the Colts defense, but it will create more space for Mark Sanchez to hit the Jets wide outs. Sanchez has had his ups and downs this season, but he has shown he can step in their and make the big throw, and he is going to have to do it at some point or another in this game.

The Jets went out and added wide receiver Santonio Holmes, and he has been a big time playmaker for the Jets this season, and with the game on the line you have to imagine the ball will be headed in his direction.

As important as the offense is, the Jets have to be able to control Peyton Manning in this game. New York added corner Antonio Cromartie this offseason, to play opposite of Revis, and also added rookie corner Kyle Wilson. There is no question the Jets were trying to get better against Manning and Brady. The big problem for New York is safety Jim Leonhard was lost for the season back in week 12, and he was the quarterback of this defense. Without him, the Jets defense was torched for 45 points by the Patriots and 38 by the Bears. If New York isn’t in place, you have to believe Manning will be able to take advantage.

Indianapolis (10-6): The Colts have pretty much walked into the postseason the last seven years, winning at least 12 games each year, but 2010 was a different story. Indianapolis had to win their final four games of the season to just secure a spot in the playoffs, as they battle through a number of injuries this season.

The Colts lost tight end Dallas Clark early in the season, and have spent most of the year without wide outs Austin Collie and Anthony Gonzalez. Still Manning found a way to get the job done, throwing for 4,700 yards and 33 touchdowns.

Reggie Wayne managed to play in all 16 games for a ninth consecutive season, and finished the year with a career-high 111 catches for 1,355 yards and six touchdowns. Pierre Garcon had 67 catches for 784 yards and six scores, and Jacob Tamme caught 67 passes for 631 yards and four touchdowns in the final 10 games filling in for Clark. Tamme had at least seven catches in seven of the ten games he played in, including each of the last three games.

The Colts really struggled to run the ball this year, as starter Joseph Addai missed eight games, but Addai returned late in the year and the Colts brought in Dominic Rhodes in week 15. The duo of Addai and Rhodes helped the Colts average 149 yards over the final three games, and if they can be a threat at all against the Jets, it will be huge for Indianapolis.

Looking at the Odds: Because this game is at Indianapolis and in the dome, I think you have to take the Colts at -2.5. Manning has shown time after time that he can beat Rex Ryan’s defenses. I don’t think either defense is going to have much success in this one, but when it is all said and done, I think Manning will deliver the final kill. My final score prediction is Indianapolis 34, New York 31.

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