2012 New York Mets Predictions
Written by Steve Janus - Google +
The New York Mets have struggled to keep up with the top guns in the NL East. Their 77-85 record landed them in fourth place inside the division for a third consecutive season. Things aren’t looking all that great for 2012, especially with Washington and Miami both looking like they will be better this season. The Mets were unable to re-sign shortstop Jose Reyes, who carried the offense for most of last season, and have done little in free agency to expect a huge turnaround. Here is a look at New York’s projected starting lineup, starting rotation, and the closer situation.
Projected Lineup
Josh Thole (Catcher) – Thole is a defensive liability and really doesn’t do a whole lot offensively. He’s hit just six home runs in 595 career at-bats. The 25-year-old still has room to grow. He hit just .268 last year, but was much closer to .300 during the second half of the season.
Ike Davis (First Base) – Davis was hitting .302 with seven home runs and 25 RBI before an ankle sprain and bone bruise cut his season to just 36 games. If he can stay healthy, he has the potential to put All-Star-like numbers this season, especially with the new dimensions of Citi Field.
Daniel Murphy (Second Base) – Murphy’s 2011 season was cut short because of poor fundamentals fielding a ground ball. His defense is a work in progress, but New York desperately wants his bat in the lineup. While he doesn’t have a lot of power, he hit .320 in 109 games last year.
Ruben Tejada (Shortstop) – With Reyes leaving town for the Marlins, it has opened the door for Tejada to become the everyday starter. The 22-year-old showed a lot of promise with a .284 batting average and .360 OBP in 328 plate appearances last year.
David Wright (Third Base) – If the Mets are going to contend in 2012, Wright needs to find a way to stay healthy. He played in just 102 games last year, and as a result he hit just .254 with 14 home runs and 61 RBI. If he can find a way to stay on the field and out of the trainers room, his numbers could see a big jump with the fences being moved in.
Jason Bay (Left Field) – Bay has been a huge disappointment since coming over from the Red Sox. When the Mets landed Bay he was coming off a season where he hit 36 home runs with 119 RBI. In two seasons with New York he has hit 18 home runs with 104 RBI.
Andres Torres (Center Field) – The Mets went out and signed Torres away from the Giants to make him their everyday center fielder. Torres is a solid defender, but he needs his offense to get back in form. After hitting .270 with 16 home runs and 63 RBI in 2010, he hit just .221 with four home runs and 19 RBI last year.
Lucas Duda (Right Field) – Duda really showed a lot of promise in the second half of last season. He hit .311 with 10 home runs and 41 RBI in his final 235 at-bats. At just 25-years-old, Duda has the potential to become a big time threat in the middle of the Mets lineup for years to come.
Projected Rotation
Johan Santana (LHP) – The Mets desperately need Santana to be the ace of this staff, but it’s hard telling what they will get out of the 32-year-old after missing an entire season. I have a hard time seeing Santana pitch as well as he did in 2010, where he finished with a .298 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, but if he’s 100% healthy he’s a legit Cy Young candidate.
R.A. Dickey (RHP) – Dickey was one of the few bright spots on the Mets pitching staff last year. The veteran knuckleballer has really been a surprise since joining the Mets in 2010. His 3.28 ERA and 1.23 WHIP are good indicators that he pitched well above what his 8-13 record leads on.
Mike Pelfrey (RHP) – Pelfrey took a big step in the wrong direction last year. After a stellar 2010 season, where he went 15-9 with a 3.66 ERA, Pelfrey finished 7-13 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 33 starts last year. He has alternated good and bad years since becoming a full time starter in 2008, which means he could be someone to watch in 2012.
Jonathon Niese (LHP) – The Mets are really looking forward to see what kind of progress Niese makes in his third season as a full-time starter. His 4.40 ERA and 1.41 WHIP from last year show he still has a ways to go, but he is making improvements in the right areas.
Dillon Gee (RHP) – Gee finished last year with an impressive 13-6 record, despite a 4.43 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. He seemed to get worse as the season went on, which points to a big drop off in production in 2012.
Projected Closer
Frank Francisco (RHP) – The Mets are hoping they get the Frank Francisco of the second half of the season and not the one that had a 5.92 ERA in the first half. Francisco converted 17 of 21 save attempts for the Blue Jays last season.
| 2012 New York Mets Odds | |
| World Series | +8000 |
| NL Pennant | +4000 |
| NL East | +5000 |
| Total Regular Season Wins | O73.5 (+105) |
| U73.5 (-135) |
Over/Under Total Home Runs in the 2012 Regular Season
David Wright – 22.5
Jason Bay – 15.5
Ike Davis – 21.5
Over/Under Total Wins in the 2012 Regular Season
Johan Santana – 7.5
Mike Pelfrey – 9.5
R.A. Dickey – 9.5
Over/Under Total Saves in the 2012 Regular Season
Frank Francisco – 30.5
MLB Predictions by Team
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