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A Roller Coaster Week of NFL Betting

The NFL is the most bet on sport of all the major ones. Basketball, hockey, and baseball don’t even compare to the popularity of football, especially pro football. In addition, people love to bet and watch primetime football games. They can go to their local bar with some buddies, have a few beers, and make some money at the same time. As a result, Monday Night Football became the most popular sporting event throughout the year, especially as it allowed people one more chance to chase a poor betting weekend. However, with the addition of the NFL Network and more primetime match-ups, there were night time games on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday of last week.

When the lines were released at the beginning of the week, I noticed that all four of the favorites had some strong situational and match-up advantages in those games. However, picking several favorites on a weekly NFL card does not usually equate to betting success. After my initial look at the lines, further research was done on each game, starting with the Thursday night match-up between Indianapolis and Jacksonville. The Colts were obviously going to be the public selection and the sharps were on the Jaguars. However, I’m always hesitant to go against Peyton Manning, as he has single handedly won several games this season. Consequently, I released my selection on Indianapolis, thinking that the Colts could still cover winning by just a touchdown. Jacksonville started the game out very strong but couldn’t stop Manning. Jaguars backers felt pretty good for the entire game though, especially with a 24-14 lead in the 4th quarter. However, Keiwan Ratliff’s interception return for a touchdown was the difference in the game. Jacksonville still had a chance to tie the game in the final seconds, but the sack of David Garrard allowed the clock to run out. The Jaguars were arguably the right side, but Manning once again led his team to victory and the cover.

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Saturday night’s game featured Baltimore and Dallas in one of the best games of the weekend. Baltimore was coming off of a devastating loss to Pittsburgh, while Dallas was coming off of a quality win over New York. I felt that Dallas was one of the stronger plays of the weekend, as they had momentum on their side, as well as facing Baltimore in a tough spot. As the Cowboys went up 7-3, I figured that my selection was going to be an easy winner, but then Dallas laid an absolute egg and made several mental errors on both sides of the ball. Sometimes they simply cannot get out of their own way and that was the case on Saturday. They still had a chance to cover late in the game, trailing only by two points with a few minutes left. If Dallas would have gotten the ball back, then they would have had a chance to score a touchdown to get the win and the cover. However, the Ravens reeled off two long touchdown runs and got the outright win as the underdog. I still think that the Cowboys were the right play, but they simply made too many mistakes against a quality team.

The New York Giants were being doubted by everyone after their tough loss to Dallas. Meanwhile, Carolina entered this week off of a high note after their blowout wins over Denver and Tampa Bay. This game was a great anti-public and anti-media play as those two groups would be all over the Panthers. My main view on the game was that New York is a veteran and experienced team which would bring their best effort to rebound from consecutive poor performances. Meanwhile, Carolina was coming in over-confident, and they weren’t a good road team all season. However, the Panthers came out stunningly strong and were leading throughout. New York looked like they weren’t going to be able to come back, but the Giants made the plays needed to in the 4th quarter, including a two point conversion. Once the game went to overtime, I hoped for a field goal win by New York for a push, as my selection was on -3. However, Tom Coughlin, not wanting to risk a missed field goal like Carolina had at the end of regulation, kept running the ball and Brandon Jacobs pounded in a touchdown for a very lucky cover.

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My worst selection of the weekend was on Chicago. I assumed they would bring a very motivated effort against a slumping Green Bay team, especially with Minnesota’s loss on Sunday. The Bears wanted to avenge their embarrassing loss to the Packers earlier in the season, but they simply didn’t have the quarterback or receiver play capable of winning that game by margin. Once the game went to overtime, I hoped for another miracle finish like the previous night. However, Chicago didn’t have the offense capable of breaking a long play and were lucky to escape with a field goal victory.

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